983 FXUS63 KLBF 262328 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 528 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 The primary forecast challenges through Sunday include wind, snow, and temperatures. A cool front skirts the area this afternoon, which is followed by a warm front tomorrow, then an Arctic front tomorrow evening. Meanwhile, a couple pieces of mid level energy rotate around the deep upper Great Lakes low. Scattered rain/snow showers have been affecting portions of the Sandhills for much of the day, which have been handled fairly well by the CAMS. Enough forcing, low level moisture, and cool temps aloft exist ahead of the warm front to continue the showers through the late evening hours. Not expecting much south of Hwy 2 where sfc dew point depressions are near 20F. Overall moisture and precip coverage are the limiting factors for accumulation to the north. As the warm front pushes east tonight, precip chances wane. H85 winds near 35kts are easily being transported to the sfc this afternoon with the help of a weak PV anomaly and stronger mid level dynamics. Low level wind shear is an aviation concern overnight due to weakening surface winds but continued strong northwest flow above the inversion. Modest WAA with the front and thicker cloud cover will keep lows fairly mild overnight in the mid/upper 20s. Bumped up Sunday highs slightly as guidance has trended more aggressive with the warming. Laid off the warmest guidance (MAV) and went with more of a general blend due to concerns with cloud cover, Arctic fropa timing, and discrepancies in H85 temps with the model suite. Fairly good confidence exists for widespread lower/mid 50s with the exception of far north central. Winds pick up again late Sunday morning with a renewed push at H85-7 and increased mixing. Blended in cons solutions for gusts to 30 mph through the afternoon. A clipper type system will drop though the region Sunday night. This will bring a strong Arctic front with strong winds across the forecast area. Cold air advection will be strong with 850mb wind from 50 to 60 kts across the northeast half of the forecast area. The height fields aloft will be tightly packed, so deep mixing will occur, especially after midnight. Wind gusts from 50 to 60 mph are possible. Have issued a High Wind Watch beginning at 00Z- 12Z Monday for Sheridan County, and from 06Z-18Z Monday from Cherry, Grant and McPherson County and all counties to the east. In general, the watch area will be for areas near and north of Highway 2, including McPherson and Logan County. Behind the arctic front a slight chance for rain or snow during the evening, then a chance for light snow northern Nebraska after midnight. Temperatures will fall through the night, with actual lows in the low teens for northeastern areas not expected to occur until mid-morning Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 The strong northwest winds will continue through the day Monday. The highest wind gusts from 50 to 60 mph are expected during the morning, then will slowly diminish through the afternoon. A slight chance for light snow lingers across northern Nebraska in the morning, otherwise mainly cloudy in the morning with a few breaks of sun in the afternoon. Highs from the upper teens far northeast to the upper 20s far southwest. Bitterly cold temperatures will affect the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region Tuesday through Thursday as a strong Polar Vortex rotates into the Great Lakes Region. Highs will be limited to the single digits and teen northeast, to the 30s southwestern areas. Depending on wind speeds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, wind chill headlines may be needed. Right now the forecast suggest minus 20 or colder wind chills east of Valentine through Burwell. Will monitor trends of the Arctic air. There is a slight chance for light snow Monday night and Wednesday night over portions of the north central. By Friday and Saturday, a substantial warmup is forecast. This to occur as the Polar Vortex lifts into Eastern Canada and and upper trough digs into the western U.S. This will bring either zonal flow or southwesterly flow aloft to the region. Highs Friday warm to the mid 40s west and upper 20s to lower 30s northeast, and to the 40s to around 50 by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 MVFR ceilings will continue across northern and north central Nebraska through 12z. Across southwest Nebraska VFR conditions will be present through the TAF period. Snow showers across north central Nebraska will taper off by mid morning on Sunday. Winds will decrease overnight at the surface, however, winds will remain strong at about 2KFT AGL which will lead to low level wind shear conditions from 06z to 18z across the area. A strong front will move into the area towards the end of the TAF period, bringing another concern for low level wind shear. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 A flood warning continues for the North Platte River at North Platte. The river has just dropped below flood stage, so may be able to drop the flood warning this evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for NEZ005>010-023>029-036>038-094. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NEZ004. && $$ SHORT TERM...Snively/Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Buttler/Thorne HYDROLOGY...Roberg