158 FXUS62 KMHX 261402 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 902 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west through Monday. A strong cold front will pass through the area Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 900 AM Sat...No changes to previous forecast thinking. Latest sfc analysis shows 1028 mb high pressure centered over the Gulf States this morning. The high will continue to ridge eastward today, and after a cool start this morning make for another dry pleasant day with sunny skies, light/variable winds, and temps near climo. Low level thickness values and full insolation support highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the SW. Could even see some spots climb into the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM Sat...High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight. Could see some high clouds overnight but generally expect good radiational cooling conditions again with light winds. Overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s inland to low 30s along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 AM Sat...Dry and seasonably cool this weekend, then moderating temps early next week with a chance of rain Tuesday night, followed by another arctic air mass invading mid week. Sunday and Sunday night...Deep longwave trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes region Sunday will lift out Sunday night. At the surface, high pres along the coast Sunday will shift off the coast Sunday night. Near climo heights/thicknesses will mean seasonably cool highs with temps in the low to mid 50s. Monday through Tuesday...A shortwave trough/channeled vorticity will shift east through eastern NC, with different surface reflections amongst the 00Z guidance. GFS is farther offshore with a weak surface low developing along the trough that lifts quickly northeast away from the area. ECMWF remains an outlier with the surface low development off the Southeast coast, slowly lifting northeast closer to the coastline. ECM scenario also has support from its ensemble members, so will continue slight chance PoPs along the southern OBX for Monday. Models in converging agreement on arrival of next arctic air mass by midweek, and cold front ahead of it on Tuesday, esp. Tuesday night bringing a quick shot of rain showers. Have retained the chance PoPs for Tuesday afternoon through evening. Cold air appears to build in from the west too late for frozen precip, so will carry no mention of frozen precip Tue night. Temps rise into the upper 50s to near 60 ahead of the front Tues, then drop through the 30s Tue night with CAA commencing. Wednesday through Friday...Aforementioned arctic cold front will have passed through by early Wednesday, with cold air mass building into much of the eastern CONUS. Thicknesses suggest high temps in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s with lows in the 20s, perhaps colder if the arctic high pressure becomes centered over the area leading to good radiational cooling. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 620 AM Sat...Have seen patchy fog develop at EWN and PGV early this morning with clear skies and calm winds. This should dissipate by around 12z. Patchy fog will be possible at EWN and PGV again late tonight and early Sunday morning with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Other than brief patchy fog, high confidence in pred VFR conditions through the TAF period. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 2 am Sat...VFR conditions through the period. Sub-VFR possible Tuesday afternoon/night in showers ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR returns Wed. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 900 AM Sat...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs show light and variable winds N/E 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will continue to build in from the west today and tonight, making for pretty good boating conditions across the waters. Winds become more variable this afternoon, though generally S/SW 5-10 kt and SW/NW tonight 10 kt or less. Seas expected to remain 2-3 ft through tonight. Long Term /Sun through Wed/... As of 225 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through Monday night. Winds will be generally light/variable with high pressure overhead. Winds generally NW to N Sunday through Monday and remaining generally light. Winds and seas will increase Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small craft winds/seas expected to develop on the Pamlico Sound and on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet Tuesday night through Wednesday with the passage of a strong cold front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CQD/HSA MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA