424 FXUS61 KCAR 261148 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 648 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure builds over the area today and moves northeast of the region tonight. Low pressure tracking northwest of Maine will draw a warm front across the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 645am update...Increased clouds slightly for today. METSAT imagery shows mid and high clouds advecting into the region in a fast southwesterly flow. Still like the odds for good radiational cooling tonight, but lows may occur a few hours before sunrise for northern locations as stratus and stratocu may advect into those northern zones from the east. Previous discussion... The high pressure system will keep it dry through tonight. A stalled cold front will slowly drift southward through the forecast area and weaken today. A very weak upper level shortwave will move from the eastern Great Lakes this morning towards the Canadian Maritimes tonight. This system has little moisture, but is currently generating some snow showers across upstate New York and Vermont. Guidance is trying to produce some snow shower activity in northern Piscataquis and Penobscot counties this afternoon towards the stalled front. There's just enough H850 moisture and steep low level lapse rates to justify mention of isolated to scattered snow showers in an axis from Greenville towards Mars Hill this afternoon. The shortwave will pick up some moisture from the Bay of Fundy by this evening as a weak sfc low develops off the Downeast coast, but too late to assign more than slight chance pops to coastal Washington County. The shortwave and frontal boundary will produce enough mid clouds such that partly sunny or mostly cloudy verbiage will be used for all of the zones today. For tonight, the high strengthens to the north with a ridge axis extending southward into Maine. Clouds are expected to dissipate. Will lean towards colder guidance with the idea that a fairly steep and shallow radiation inversion will form...resulting in some readings as low as 10 below in Aroostook County. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure tracking northwest of Maine draws a warm front across the region Sunday, with a cold front following Sunday night. Overrunning snow will develop across the region Sunday, persist early Sunday night, then taper to snow showers overnight along with decreasing clouds. Snow accumulations through Sunday are expected to range from 3 to 5 inches north, 1 to 3 inches across central areas with an inch or less Downeast. High pressure will cross the region Monday with partly/mostly sunny skies. High pressure will begin to exit across the Maritimes Monday night, with low pressure starting to approach from the west late. Clouds will increase Monday night, with a slight chance of snow late across northwest areas. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Sunday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday, while a secondary low forms along the coast. Uncertainty still exists regarding the track and intensity of the secondary low later Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow will develop across the region Tuesday, then persist across much of the region into Wednesday. However, dependent on the eventual track of the low, the snow could transition to a wintry mix or rain along the Downeast coast. Precipitation amounts also remain uncertain at this time. The secondary low will exit across the Maritimes Thursday, drawing a cold front across the region with generally partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of snow showers. High pressure will then build across the region Friday with partly sunny skies. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday. Below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR is the predominant condition through tonight. There is a slight chance of some MVFR cigs north of HUL late tonight. SHORT TERM: Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels Sunday. Conditions will improve to generally VFR levels across the region Sunday night, though occasional MVFR conditions could persist across the north and mountains. VFR conditions are expected across the region through much of Monday, with MVFR conditions possible later Monday night across northern areas. Conditions should lower to generally MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, levels Tuesday with similar conditions persisting Wednesday dependent on the eventual timing and track of a possible coastal low. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds have decreased below criteria, but seas will remain above 5 feet until late this afternoon in the outer waters. As a result, have cancelled the existing Small Craft Advisory in favor of a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas. Light freeing spray is expected this morning. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Sunday into Monday night. Visibilities could be reduced in rain/snow Sunday into Sunday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross