651 FXUS63 KEAX 260923 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 323 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 323 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2019 Regional radars beginning to show light returns across western Missouri this morning out ahead of a shortwave disturbance approaching from the northwest. Meanwhile, latest surface analysis shows a cold front slowly sagging south across our region in response to high pressure building in from the north. Dry air associated with this feature along with limited moisture availability and fast system movement will limit snow accumulations today, with the best potential for a dusting to maybe a half inch remaining across north-central and northeastern Missouri later today. Overall, this system should have limited impacts across the region aside from reduced visibilities from time to time and minor accumulations. Temperatures today will vary quite considerably across the region as aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over the area. Mid 20's across the far northeast will warm considerably the further south and west you go as mid 40s dominate along the I-49 corridor south of KC. After a quiet overnight period tonight, much of Sunday looks to remain dry out ahead of another storm system that will begin impacting our region Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the lower to middle 40s across central and western portions of the forecast area, while lower to middle 30s dominate across the northeast. Precip, initially in the form of rain, will begin sliding south over the area Sunday night with continuation into the day on Monday. What had originally looked like a mixed bag precipitation event yesterday, has trended warmer with today's model runs which suggests much of the precip will now fall in the form of rain before colder air starts moving in during the day on Monday. This could allow for a brief changeover to mixed precipitation, but today's model runs are pretty insistent that much of the precip will occur well ahead of the incoming cold front. In any event, trends will continue to be monitored but the overall winter weather impact threat appears to be lessening with each successive model run. Heading into middle to latter stages of next week, the main focus will easily be centered on unseasonably cold temperatures as arctic high pressure builds south from the Canadian prairie provinces. Models have been advertising this rather significant cooldown for the past several day now, and the model presentation this morning is nothing short of concerning due to the run-to- run model consistency showing 850 temperatures anomalies of 3-4 standard deviations below normal. This will easily be the coldest airmass of the season with many locations likely falling below zero both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. In fact, highs on Thursday will likely only warm into the lower to middle teens for most, with lower single digits possible up across the far northeast. In stands to reason that we'll likely be needing wind chill headlines of some sort as we get closer to the event. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1003 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2019 MVFR stratus at KMCI should be short-lived, and VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the night. Winds will veer from north to southeast early this morning at speeds less than 6 kts, then will increase out of the southwest by mid-morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...32 Aviation...Laflin