292 FXUS65 KABQ 242201 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 300 PM MST Thu Jan 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry northwest winds aloft will bring several cold fronts to northern and central New Mexico through the middle of next week. Areas of light snow are possible over portions of north central and northeast New Mexico this evening but little to no accumulations are expected. Warming Friday will be followed by another cool down Saturday. Sunday will be warmer but will be followed by a much stronger cold front Monday into Tuesday bringing potential for brisk winds and light snow across central and eastern New Mexico. With the exception of Sunday, high temperatures will be below average through next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Models have changed little in the weather pattern through the middle of next week, with relatively dry northwest flow aloft ushering several upper troughs and associated cold fronts into northern and central New Mexico. The eastern plains will bear the brunt of the fronts, where brisk and colder conditions will alternate from day to day with breezy and warmer weather. However, high temperatures across the forecast area will be generally below normal for the later half of January through the middle of next week. Sunday will be the lone exception, as high temperatures range from near normal central and west to about 10 degrees above normal eastern plains. The Friday night/Saturday trough still appears dry, although the NAM12 indicates some moisture over the northwest third or so, from which isolated light precipitation could fall. The Monday/Tuesday trough and cold front still appear to bring the coldest punch but only meager amounts of precipitation. The GFS indicates another dry cold front could impact the eastern plains next Wednesday. The ECMWF also depicts this front but the upper trough is deeper, leading to some light precipitation over western New Mexico, but none of any significance. The ridge to our west looks to remain intact through 240 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Embedded shortwaves within northwest flow aloft will continue to cross NM with little impact over the next several days. One such shortwave has crossed the area today, and an associated cold front has shifted across the area as well. Behind the back door segment of the front, low clouds are likely to form across northeast NM this evening and overnight. Yet another weak wave will cross the northeast early Friday morning with little impact. Then, models still suggest that a stronger wave will cross Friday night into early Saturday, but moisture continues to lack with this wave. It will, however, send a weak cold front down, but this front may just act to stall warming, rather than really cool temperatures from Friday's readings. The warming trend will be back on for Sunday, but then a strong cold front will race through the state Monday and Monday night, dropping temperatures well below normal by Tuesday. Light snow will also be possible Monday afternoon and night along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Poor ventilation will be the rule for much of this time period. The exception is across the eastern plains where bouts of fair to good ventilation is possible. 34 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. A back door front is sliding down the plains today. Low clouds (MVFR to IFR cigs) are expected to form across far NE NM this afternoon through the overnight period in the wake of the front. Low clouds are also likely along the TX border overnight. It's possible to see MVFR cigs at KLVS or KTCC but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAF. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 15 39 17 42 / 5 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 6 35 7 39 / 10 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 14 36 13 39 / 5 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 10 41 12 42 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 6 41 9 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 12 41 13 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 15 44 18 43 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 24 55 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 3 31 5 36 / 20 0 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 17 36 17 39 / 5 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 17 38 18 41 / 10 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 1 29 7 33 / 10 0 10 10 Red River....................... 3 25 7 29 / 20 0 10 10 Angel Fire...................... -1 29 -1 32 / 20 0 10 10 Taos............................ 4 31 5 35 / 10 0 5 5 Mora............................ 14 38 14 42 / 10 0 5 10 Espanola........................ 15 38 16 41 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 16 36 18 39 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 16 38 17 40 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 22 43 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 24 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 19 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 20 45 23 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 18 47 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 23 44 23 47 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 22 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 19 38 20 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 20 40 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 15 42 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 18 37 19 39 / 5 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 22 44 23 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 25 48 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 22 45 24 45 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 12 38 14 41 / 30 0 10 10 Raton........................... 13 42 16 45 / 20 0 10 10 Springer........................ 14 44 18 47 / 20 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 15 41 17 42 / 10 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 19 44 24 48 / 30 0 0 5 Roy............................. 17 44 20 46 / 20 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 22 51 25 51 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 23 50 25 51 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 21 51 24 53 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 21 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 22 50 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 23 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 21 55 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 25 52 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 23 50 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$