290 FXUS64 KBMX 241749 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1149 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019 .UPDATE... For 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. Regional radar currently has light showers associated with the surface cold front in our far eastern counties this AM. This boundary will continue to move eastward as surface high pressure begins to build in from the west. Weak lift associated with the cold air advection and shallow moisture will allow for light snow flurries and light rain through the morning until the lift exits between 10 and Noon. Temperatures behind the front have dropped into the 30's while out ahead temperatures remain in the 40's. The advection of cooler, drier air today will keep high temperatures cooler despite clearing of clouds. High's will be in the middle 40's north to upper 40s/near 50's south. A dry cold front associated with an upper level impulse will swing through the area late Thursday night early Friday morning. Forecast soundings and 1000-850mb RH indicate the presence of a shallow saturated layer. With enough forcing few scattered flurries are possible in our far northern counties (generally north of I20). These are not anticipated to last long before drier air moves in. No accumulations or impacts are expected. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20's north to low 30's south. 07 .LONG TERM... Friday through Thursday. We begin drying out on Friday as the cold front pushes through Central AL. Models continue to show this as a dry front, so we shouldn't see any precip with it during the day on Friday. We also won't warm up by very much, with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 30s in the north to near 50 in the south (most of the area in the mid 40s). Moisture return will be limited over the weekend, so when our next upper level trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, models continue to show it dry as well, though some guidance tries to bring in some very light showers. For now, will leave any mentionable chance for rain out of the forecast over the weekend. After this upper shortwave passes, we should see high pressure build into the area, leading to partly cloudy skies and warmer temps for Monday. Meanwhile on Monday, an Alberta Clipper dips into the Upper Midwest and stretches a cold front southwestward through the Ohio River and Mississippi River Valleys as the system moves into the Great Lakes Region. Models continue to hint at this cold front being fairly strong as it moves southeastward into Central AL late Monday night into Tuesday. Since this has shown some consistency in timing and moisture availability for several runs now, I've started trending up in PoPs during the day. I also have mention for the chance of winter precip as this cold front moves through on Tuesday, but confidence remains low given the uncertainties in precise timing of the cold air behind the front and the precip along the front. Colder and drier air moves in for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. MVFR stratus clearing from west to east at mid day, and expect SCT to FEW cigs at all northern terminals and MGM by 20Z, and TOI by 21Z. VFR conditions prevail overnight and Friday morning. Winds will be breezy and out of the northwest this afternoon, with speeds around 10kts. A few higher gusts are not out of the question. Winds diminish this evening, and become northerly at 5-6kts Friday morning. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions expected through the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time due to wet antecedent conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 44 26 40 23 46 / 10 10 0 0 10 Anniston 45 28 42 23 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 45 28 42 24 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 47 28 45 26 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 Calera 46 29 43 25 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 Auburn 47 31 47 26 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 31 50 27 52 / 10 10 0 0 0 Troy 49 32 50 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$