089 FXUS62 KFFC 241137 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 635 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... The cold front was just east of Athens to Macon this morning and will continue to push eastward. Some light rain is lingering behind the front into north and west GA...but think we will see drying from the west around 12z. The colder air is still mostly in AL with mid 40s just starting to enter the far northwest. Cooling may not be quick enough to cause the brief rain/snow mix in the far northeast this morning...but not confident enough to take it out. Not looking for any accumulation if we do get it. Temperatures will again be difficult today with a non diurnal trace and temperatures generally falling during the day. Expecting gusty northwest winds today but think they will stay below wind advisory criteria. Tonight will be clear and colder. A weak impulse crossing the TN Valley on Friday may bring only some cloudiness to north GA. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch until expiration at 12z. 41 .LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... A strong surface High Pressure system will be settled in over the region at the start of the long term period, keeping areas of precipitation at bay towards the north and south through the weekend. Temps will generally be around normal (albeit slowly warming each consecutive day) with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Afterwards, chances of precip in the region go up as a cold front is expected by Tuesday morning, with temperatures ranging from 10-15 degrees below normal by next Wednesday, with low temps in the 20s Wednesday morning. In general, the GFS and Euro are in good agreement regarding the overall pattern, through the long term, with the GFS-FV3 lagging behind while elongating the cold front. The result is a chance for precip from ranging from early Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. Both the GFS and Euro agree on the highest chances of precip coming during the day on Tuesday, with precip falling behind the cold front. The Euro hints at some snow flurries behind the line of storms where the GFS is much more bullish with light snow coverage with chances all the way down to central Georgia. Both then clear out with high pressure settling in with a weak shortwave moving through Wednesday night. the Euro keeps this wave dry while the GFS hints at light snow flurries possible for far North Georgia. The GFS-FV3 on the other hand, elongates the cold front, pushing it through slowly on Wednesday. It's much drier than the Euro and GFS, but still has a strong signal that we could see so mixed/frozen precip through the area on Wednesday instead, even into central Georgia. The current forecast blends these 3 scenarios with each having some consistency to their claims from the previous night. Guidance has been putting a signal for some winter precip around this time for the last several days with no clear indication on which way Mother Nature will go. Seemed appropriate to include at least a slight chance of each possibility. Although if you hold my feet to the fire, I'd lean towards the Euro (front Tuesday, little chance of frozen precip with higher temps and dry the next several days afterwards). Thiem && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... MVFR ceilings lingering with some areas of IFR. Gradual improvement after 14z with scattering after 18z. Rain has ended over the taf sites but there could be a few sprinkles this morning. Winds will be northwest with gusts to around 25kt through the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium on ceilings this morning. High on all else. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 50 30 46 24 / 30 5 0 0 Atlanta 45 30 42 25 / 10 5 5 0 Blairsville 39 24 36 18 / 20 5 0 0 Cartersville 43 28 40 21 / 10 5 0 0 Columbus 50 32 50 27 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 45 29 42 24 / 20 5 0 0 Macon 53 32 50 24 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 43 28 39 21 / 10 5 0 0 Peachtree City 47 30 44 23 / 10 5 0 0 Vidalia 60 35 53 29 / 30 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Dade...Dawson... Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens... Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...41