834 FXUS63 KIND 241112 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 612 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 216 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 Arctic high pressure over the northern plains states is expected to dive south across the plains and bring ridging across the Ohio Valley through Friday. This will result in dry but very cold weather through Friday. A quick moving area of low pressure will push out of the upper midwest and quickly cross Indiana on Friday Night and early Saturday. This system will bring some light snow chances to Indiana...with only minimal accumulations. Another cold front is expected to pass across Indiana on Sunday before yet another low pressure system passes through the region on Monday bringing daily chances for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 216 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure over the southern plains along with a second high entering Montana. Broad low pressure was found over Quebec and was providing cyclonic across Indiana and the Great Lakes. Surface ridging was found across Illinois...as was the back edge of the strato-cu deck across Indiana as seen on GOES-16. Cold NW surface flow was in place across Indiana with dewpoints in the teens. Upstream...dew points were in the single digits. Time heights and forecast soundings today show the pesky strato- cu deck lingering across the the area this morning...then dissipating somewhat mid day as the the ridge to west builds across Indiana. However late in the day forecast soundings show saturation again within the lower levels as the surface ridging flattens and appears overcome by broad cyclonic flow again. Aloft broad cyclonic flow remains in place across the eastern 2/3rds of the country....with little upper support. Thus this all sounds like a recipe for a mostly cloudy day. Cold air advection will be ongoing through the day as 850mb temps fall to near -10c by 00z. Thus will not look for much of a rise in temperatures today. Will look for high tempertures achieved early in the day...and trend highs at or below the forecast builder blends. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 216 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 GFS and NAM suggest strong ridging building across Indiana...extending strong high pressure settling across the southern plains. This will allow cold NW flow across Indiana continued cold air advection. Forecast soundings show a dry column and will expect skies to clear overnight and continue into Friday. 850mb temps fall all the way to -17C by Friday morning...with a very cold 507 dam thickness in place. Thus will trend toward becoming mostly clear tonight and mainly sunny skies on Friday with temps below the forecast builder blends. On Friday night a quick but weak area of low pressure is expected to pass across Indiana. Forecast soundings show good lower level saturation as this quick moving system moves through along with good saturation within the -10 to -20 dendritic growth zone. Cyclonic flow remains aloft...but little is seen within the way of upper support. Thus with pwat around 0.2 and a high snow ratio...a minimal but quick snow accumulation will be possible on Friday night into Saturday as this system passes. Will trend pops higher than the blends but stick close on the blends temperatures. Broad cyclonic flow aloft look to keep clouds in place across the area on Saturday night. The GFS and NAM suggest a weak short wave aloft passing across Indiana aloft. Forecast soundings respond with lower level saturation arriving overnight and dry air aloft. the lower levels again suggest broad cyclonic flow...suggesting weak convergence. Thus some flurries or very light snow showers with minimal to no accumulation is possible. With cloud cover expected...will trend lows at or above the forecast builder blends. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued at 233 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 The long term period continues to look very cold toward mid to late next week. Multiple disturbances in the cyclonic flow aloft will bring chances for mainly snow to the area. The exception to this may come Monday into Monday night, when a very brief warmup accompanies a more organized system moving through the Great Lakes. This may allow precipitation over the southern half or so of the area to change over to rain brifely before changing back. 850 mb temperatures a strong Arctic high in the wake of another weak wave after that early week system are very low and subzero low temperatures will definitely be in play mid to late next week, particularly if some snowfall can accumulate. Blended initialization handled things relatively well and required only minor adjustment. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/12Z TAFs/... Issued at 612 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 MVFR conditions at IND/BMG initially may give way to VFR for a time later this morning into the early afternoon as the low level stratus deck scatters out. However, expect additional MVFR ceilings to develop and move into the area later this afternoon and persist into the night. LAF/HUF are right on the edge of the cloud deck this morning and will likely scatter by valid time, although they may fluctuate back and forth for a time. Winds will strengthen later in the period as a secondary cold front moves through the area. Winds will generally be from 280-290 late in the period when this occurs, with wind gusts as high as 25KT or so. Visibility will likely be unrestricted through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...Nield