995 
FXUS63 KICT 231748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 211 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The star will shine brightly today and combined with low-level 
westerly downslope winds we should witness a decent rebound of 
temperatures. Meanwhile, current satellite water vapor shows a upper 
level wave north of Alberta, Canada. This wave will race southeast 
across the Rockies and move through Kansas on Thursday. Another shot 
of polar air will accompany this weather system along with a 
possible fleet-footed band of light snow or flurries mainly 
Thursday morning. We are not expecting any accumulations to occur 
with this quick hitting system. The polar airmass will shift east 
for Friday with southerly winds returning to the central plains 
and slightly warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

A warming trend for temperatures looks to be in store for the 
weekend especially on Sunday with good downslope effects boosting 
daytime highs above normal. Heading into early next week long range 
models are indicating true arctic air plunging southward across the 
northern plains into Kansas this period. If they continue to hold on 
to this solution and 850mb standardize anomaly temperatures of 2-3 
deviations below normal. This has potential to be some of the coldest 
air yet for this winter season across Kansas with rapidly falling 
temperatures during the day on Monday. Later shifts will likely 
trend temperature downward if this signal remains consistent from 
the models. We could also see some light wintry precipitation 
develop over the area in conjunction with this very cold airmass. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Expect MVFR ceilings to gradually erode from west to east across 
eastern Kansas as the afternoon progresses, as low-level flow 
becomes a bit more westerly. Otherwise, a strong cold front is 
slated to blast south across the region late tonight through 
Thursday morning, with gusty north winds and MVFR ceilings in its
wake. Deep frontogenetical lift associated with this front and 
approaching shortwave energy may produce areas of flurries or very
light snow, especially west of I-135. A light dusting of 
accumulation cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  24  31  17 /   0   0  10   0 
Hutchinson      44  24  28  17 /   0   0  10   0 
Newton          42  24  29  14 /   0   0  10   0 
ElDorado        40  24  30  15 /   0   0  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   42  24  34  16 /   0   0  10   0 
Russell         38  23  24  18 /   0  10  10   0 
Great Bend      39  24  25  19 /   0  10  10   0 
Salina          40  24  27  16 /   0   0  10   0 
McPherson       42  23  28  15 /   0   0  10   0 
Coffeyville     37  24  37  14 /   0   0  10   0 
Chanute         36  23  31  12 /   0   0  10   0 
Iola            36  23  30  11 /   0   0  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    37  23  34  13 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK