834 FXUS63 KDLH 230221 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 821 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 A few areas of clearing skies has occurred this evening. However, with an upper level trof moving overhead, additional clouds and flurries were also in play. More clouds upstream in southern Manitoba, are on track to spread into the area overnight. Beefed up the cloud cover as a result, which also led to min temps being raised. Made some other minor changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 Cold tonight and Wednesday night with a round of light snow late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Light snow and flurries linger over northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Have trimmed the last of the Winter Weather Advisory with this update. A ridge of high pressure will slide through the Northland overnight. Upstream satellite and surface observations feature overcast skies at this time. However, downslope isentropic flow and subsidence aloft is expected to erode the stratus for a time tonight. With light winds and fresh snow pack, have continued to trend temps overnight toward the colder side of guidance. At least an hour or two of clearing with light winds is expected for most locales. Overnight lows will be from around -15 near International Falls and around 10 degrees above zero in north- central Wisconsin. With light winds during the coldest times overnight, wind chill headlines will not be needed. Southerly winds are will return for Wednesday ahead of an approaching clipper. Look for highs in the teens, with a few locales in northern Wisconsin making a run at the low 20s. The clipper will move into northern Minnesota and northwest Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Strong cold air advection and resultant frontogenesis will be more than sufficient for nuisance snow showers starting late Wednesday afternoon in north-central Minnesota and moving into our eastern-most Wisconsin zones by late Wednesday evening. Snow accumulation of a dusting to an inch are expected. Strong northwest winds will accompany the Arctic cold front associated with the clipper Wednesday night. The combination of cold air temps and strong winds will necessitate wind chill headlines tomorrow night. Decided to hold off on issuing for now as we may approach warning thresholds in our northern zones. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 Cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills continue to be the focus of the long term forecast. A large dome of cold air will spin in place across Ontario, Canada for the foreseeable future. It's like an ice disk in a river, it is stuck in the flow and continually rotates cold air down meridionally across our region with very little zonal movement. It's not quite an omega block, but definitely will act like one. This will keep temperatures flirting with -20 to -30 F on several nights most notably Friday morning where wind chills may eclipse the -50 to -60 F threshold in the MN Arrowhead near the border country as the coldest air arrives. Precipitation is at a premium, but there will be some potential for snow on Sunday night with a "warm up" to near 0F in NE MN and maybe 10F in NW WI as a system crosses by to our south. Then after this passes, the cold arrives again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 High pressure will build across the terminals through the forecast. However, some clouds will linger with MVFR/VFR cigs. A brief break in the clouds may occur ahead of an upper level trof that is approaching from the northwest. The break will be short lived as additional clouds with VFR/MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop and affect all terminals. Light snow will be in the vicinity of INL by the end of the forecast as an area of low pressure from Manitoba approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 1 16 -5 -3 / 10 10 60 0 INL -7 16 -13 -10 / 0 70 80 0 BRD -3 17 -8 -6 / 10 10 40 0 HYR 4 19 -1 2 / 10 10 50 0 ASX 7 21 3 3 / 10 10 60 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...GSF SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...GSF