617 FXUS61 KRLX 222001 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 301 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend tonight. Approaching cold front brings all rain on Wednesday, transitioning to all snow by early Thursday. Cold fronts bring colder air next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure continues in control through early tonight. A cold front will shift the high pressure to the east, to arrive along the OH River overnight. Deep low level winds from south to southwest will provide warm air advection through Wednesday. Have rain showers reaching the OH River during the predawn hours Wednesday, a considerable delay on onset from previous model runs. Expect rain to spread east transitioning into all snow after midnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The main area of concern is the eastern slopes where temperatures could remain below freezing through Wednesday morning. If the rain reaches these areas before they warm up, freezing rain could be possible. Went with the CONShort for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... The forecast period starts off with a cold front associated with the low pressure system to the north sweeping across the area bringing rain at first. Precipitable water is expected to be over an inch throughout the area which is anomalously high for this time of year. For this reason and with the help of a surface low developing south ahead riding up along the cold front, which will slow down the progression slightly, the area will likely see at least an inch of rain widespread. Localized higher amounts near the southern and mountainous areas along the VA border are possible. Before a transition to all snow there may brief spots of sleet and freezing rain, however this will be so short live that it will not be impactful. Am expecting around an inch of total accumulation of snow with some higher amounts in the mountains. With most of the dendritic growth zones drying out Thursday morning accumulations slow down on the back side of this system and not expecting much more accumulations into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... As the light snow showers linger in the mountains and tapers off Friday evening a series of short waves will be sweeping through the area over the weekend into the middle of the week. This will bring intermittent bursts of snow flurries. Cold bursts of air with every wave will allow temperature profile to become colder and colder making snow ratios quite large so am expecting a lot of drier snow to fall, so accumulations are expected to be confined to mainly the higher elevations where an upslope flow will be takeover. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1250 PM Tuesday... Widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. Surface high pressure builds in Today through Wednesday. Satellite images show high cirrus clouds moving from the west. Bufkit soundings suggest these clouds will gradually thicken overnight into Wednesday morning, with rain showers reaching portions of southeast OH early Wednesday morning. Southeast winds from 5-10 knots could increase overnight, especially over the higher terrain. Models are in agreement increasing H850 Winds to 50-60 knots by 00Z Wednesday. Have included LLWS at HTS and CRW from 03-09Z tonight. FROPA reaches the OH River by 00Z tonight, spreading rain showers east into Wednesday morning, transitioning to all snow Wednesday night. IFR conditions expected under periods of snow beyond the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of LLWS tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible in rain Wednesday into Wednesday night, and then in snow overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARJ