231 FXUS64 KJAN 202127 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 327 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Monday: After a breezy day, winds will calm considerably as a surface ridge moves across the region tonight. With the high centered well north of us, a light breeze may persist in some areas, but particularly in sheltered areas winds will calm. Low clouds have cleared across the entire area. High cloudiness spilling over an upper ridge are prominent across much of the Plains, but guidance layer RH suggest these will be quite thin if they do reach our area tonight. Somewhat efficient radiational cooling is anticipated with temps falling into the low to mid 20s over much of the area by tomorrow morning. Dry and mostly clear weather will continue through the day tomorrow as the surface ridge axis shifts past the area. /DL/ Monday night through the week... The weather pattern could be rather interesting this week as a few storm systems move through the region. First, the region will encounter shortwave ridging Monday night that will move east by Tuesday morning. This southerly flow will allow moisture to return to the ArkLaMiss. Highs Tuesday will return to the 60s in the west and lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Residents should enjoy these temperatures as colder air looks to prevail through the remainder of the week. Cloud cover will increase on Tuesday as well as light rain moving in from west to east late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This comes ahead of another upper level trough digging south across Texas. The best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this trough and associated cold front. While rainfall rates may not be high, the area could see widespread 1-2 inches of rain from this system and will need to monitor for any potential flooding issues. The bulk of the precipitation will move east by Wednesday afternoon. It is not out of the realm of possibility that yet again there could be a mixture of rain or snow as this moisture moves out and the colder air moves in. Confidence is not high in this scenario but will keep a mention of some light snow or light rain on the backside of the exiting precipitation. The region will remain under general troughing on Thursday which will result in rather chilly temperatures. Highs should be in the 40s areawide but we might be lucky enough to see some sun to hopefully counteract the cold. Heading into the end of the week and the weekend, model solutions vary as to the expected weather pattern. The GFS shows a reinforcing cold front on Friday with mostly dry conditions through the weekend. The ECMWF also shows some colder conditions but depicts a much wetter scenario come Saturday which would likely spell some wintry precipitation across the region. For now, no winter weather is in the official forecast given this low confidence, lack of consensus in model output, longer range forecast but will definitely be something to watch over subsequent model runs. One thing does seem a little more certain is that we should see temperatures a bit more indicative of winter heading into the last weekend of January. Highs on Friday will be chilly in the 30s and 40s and overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s for Friday and Saturday mornings. /28/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: As MVFR stratus continue to dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. NNW winds will become less gusty this afternoon and will shift to NE on Monday. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 27 52 38 58 / 0 0 3 38 Meridian 23 50 34 55 / 0 0 2 30 Vicksburg 26 53 41 62 / 0 0 4 45 Hattiesburg 25 54 38 60 / 0 0 5 31 Natchez 27 54 44 65 / 0 0 7 45 Greenville 27 49 37 57 / 0 0 4 50 Greenwood 24 50 38 55 / 0 0 3 33 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/28