207 FXUS66 KMFR 201104 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 304 AM PST Sun Jan 20 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Heavy rain, possible flooding to continue for the next few hours. Remember to turn around, don't drown... .DISCUSSION...Radar and Satellite observations are showing bands of moderate precipitation occurring across portions of southern Oregon and western Siskiyou County in northern California. This is part of the same atmospheric river and stalled frontal boundary that have brought copious rainfall amounts to the area. 2-day storm total rainfall amounts as of 2 AM include 2.22 inches at the Medford Airport, 4.69 inches at the Brookings Airport, 7.9 inches of rain at Redmound, 2.27 inches at the Roseburg Airport, 0.54 inches at Klamath Falls, and less the farther east you go. Additionally, the Ash Creek Raws in siskiyou County received 1.3 inches of rain. Unfortunately, the ASOS at Mt. Shasta City stopped reporting, so we don't have a clear picture of precipitation in that area. Areas in the Shasta Valley, where things were windy, seemed to get much less rain, with the Weed Airport RAWS seeing less than a tenth of an inch of rain. This seems reasonable, as we expect areas that see winds to get less rain due to terrain effects. Additionally, some of our recent burn scars received several inches of rain--namely the Natchez fire in northern California, and the Chetco Bar/Klondike Fires in southern Oregon. So far we have not received any reports of debris flows, but they will be possible as more rain falls. Please, if you encounter water on roadways, find an alternate route. Turn around, don't drown. Antecedent conditions are extremely wet, and there have been several reports of water ponding on roadways through the day today. Have extended the urban and small stream flood advisory through 8 AM as another round of heavy precipitation is poised to move through our area and the frontal boundary nudges back one more time before moving eastward. Am also continuing the areal flood watch for southern Coos, Curry, Josephine, and western Siskiyou Counties for now. Furthermore, a few of our rivers have come risen quite rapidly over the last several hours, and we are keeping a close eye on these areas. This includes the Rogue River at Agness and the Coquille River at Coquille. These areas currently have river flood watches in effect, and feel comfortable continuing these watches as the rivers will get close to seeing some minor impacts of roads and homes. Additionally, we're keeping a close eye on the Little Butte Creek near eagle point. We've already reached "action stage" with this creek, which means that it is getting close to bankfull. The current thinking is that creek will not overflow its banks, but since homes are pretty close, will continue to monitor. Please stay tuned to your local media/NOAA weather radio for updates and any possible warnings that may come from our office. This front will finally begin advancing again, and it will make the precipitation more showery in nature. Current model guidance is indicating that this could happen as early as 5 AM, but things could be delayed a couple of hours. Once the front moves through, snow levels will drop to around 4000 feet. Web cameras are already showing snow along Highway 97 near La Pine and highway 138 near Diamond Lake. This is normal as the front has that wobble. The snow should turn back into rain at some point tonight for an hour or two, then turn back to snow showers later this morning. Of course, the guidance has not handled the intricacies of this storm very well, so these areas could see only snow. Thus, a winter weather advisory goes into effect at 4 AM for areas above 4000 feet in the Cascades, Siskiyous, and the Marble Mountains. This advisory is only in effect for the higher passes, like Lake of the Woods. Will need to continue to monitor US 97 via communication with ODOT and web camera to determine if an advisory is needed there too. Finally, the last threat associated with this system will be winds from the south in the Shasta Valley and the Summer Lake area and higher terrain areas east of the Cascades. Some of our wind gusts have already risen to 40 mph, and could see wind gusts to 55 mph. This can make travel difficult for high profile vehicles, and could cause loose objects to be blown away. The wind advisory will continue for the aforementioned areas until 10 AM once things start calming down. The showers will continue through today becoming a bit more sporadic. Meaning there will be increasing periods where it is not raining. This transition day will continue through Monday before a ridge of high pressure builds in over the Pacific Northwest and California. This means we will be returning to the fog and low clouds next week for many areas west of the Cascades with cold overnight low temperatures also returning. One exception to this pattern is that a weak front will move northward over the ridge on Wednesday. This will bring some light precipitation to areas north of the Umpqua Divide, but this system is not expected to be as impactful as the currently ongoing system. In summary, lots of rain has fallen over the past two days. Moderate will continue through today becoming showery in nature. Make sure you remain aware of high water, possible debris flows, and any flooding. Stay near your weather radio, or stay tuned to local news media who will relay any additional warnings from our office. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...For the 20/06Z TAFs...A frontal system is bringing widespread MVFR and areas of IFR in moderate to heavy rainfall from the Cascades westward this evening. Expect this continue for the next few hours, but then, the front will get a push eastward late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough offshore acts as a kicker. Gusty winds could develop in the Shasta Valley and over the east side for a few hours in advance of the front. The main band of rain associated with the front will push east of the Cascades Sunday morning, so some low ceilings/fog could develop in west side valleys. Plenty of showers will continue behind the front Sunday, so we'll continue with widespread MVFR ceilings with terrain obscured and areas of IFR. There could also be isolated thunderstorms over the coastal waters and immediate coast as the upper trough moves onshore. Showers diminish in coverage Sunday evening, but expect low ceilings to develop again overnight. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday 20 January 2019...Seas will lower some today, but due to a combination of a northwest and southwest swell, they are expected to remain small craft into Monday afternoon. Therefore the end time of the small craft advisory for seas has been extended until 4 pm pst Monday. Please see MWWMFR for more details. Low pressure will move into the waters Sunday night, then south of the waters Monday. North winds will increase some, but they should remain below small craft. However as previously mentioned the combination of northwest and southwest swell will be enough to cause small craft conditions for seas. A warm front will move north of the waters Tuesday bringing increasing south winds mainly over the northern outer waters, but they should remain below small craft. Elsewhere, calmer conditions are expected. There's good agreement a west swell will increase Wednesday afternoon, but right now they are only projected to be between 9-10 feet. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain over the waters Wednesday through the end of next week. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday above 4000 feet in the for ORZ025-027-028. Flood Watch until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022-024. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday above 4000 feet in the for CAZ080>083. Flood Watch until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ081. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$