210 FXUS63 KDLH 181127 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 527 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 Broken record here, but wind chills and cold continue to be the main focus of the forecast. Pressure gradient from an advancing high to our northwest and a retreating low to our east is causing 10 kt winds in conjunction with negative temperatures this morning. Currently, solidly in the wind chill advisory territory across the advised counties. Upper level clouds will increase from the west which should temper the cold a bit. 850 mb temps near -20 C will remain over the area for the foreseeable future. Will likely need more wind chill headlines tonight and for the next several nights. Only a small chance of south shore lake effect as dry air is quite extensive in the lower atmosphere. Timing and extent of the advisory still looks good. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 The Northland will be entrenched in frigid Arctic for the weekend, but the weather will moderate a bit after the weekend. An axis of high pressure will move into the Northland Saturday night, with the center of the high to the north in Ontario. This will make for a mostly clear night with light winds. Temperatures will plummet well below zero, and will likely even reach 30 below zero at International Falls. Expect dangerous wind chills of 25 to 50 below zero across central, north-central, and northeast Minnesota. The core of the very cold Arctic air will begin to shift east out of the Northland Sunday, and this should help temperatures rebound to highs mostly in the single digits above zero Sunday. Southerly return flow will develop Sunday night. Lows will be below zero and wind chills will be about 10 to 20 below zero. There is increasing confidence Monday will bring the Northland's next round of accumulating snow. A Plains low will likely track east from Colorado to the southern Great Lakes, and its inverted trough will likely bring snow through the Northland. It is possible many areas could pick up 1 to 3 inches, and the greatest snowfall should be across the southern forecast area closer to the low. Another wave of Arctic air will likely follow up the snow Tuesday, but it does not look nearly as cold as the air we will experience this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 VFR with some high clouds drifting through. A little bit of wind near KDLH this morning. Only a small chance for MVFR at HYR, but not enough of a chance for inclusion into the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 3 -16 1 -17 / 0 0 0 0 INL -8 -29 -6 -32 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 5 -17 2 -15 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 10 -5 9 -5 / 10 10 0 0 ASX 8 -1 9 -4 / 20 30 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-035-037. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolfe LONG TERM...Grochocinski AVIATION...Wolfe