399 FXUS62 KTBW 161301 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 801 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 .UPDATE... Chilly start with readings in the 30s and 40s across the area early this morning with some high clouds here and there. For the rest of today skies will be partly to mostly sunny as some more mid and high clouds move across the area associated with a shortwave. These clouds should not be enough though to keep temperatures from rising into the 60s. Clouds will move out later today and this evening with mainly clear skies overnight into Thursday morning allowing for good radiational cooling. Overall the current forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with some mid/high clouds moving across the area today. Northerly winds at 7 to 10 knots will diminish to around 5 knots or less tonight. && .MARINE... High pressure building in north of the waters will gradually settle into the northeastern Gulf through the rest of the week, with light winds and slight seas continuing. Conditions will start to deteriorate late Saturday ahead of the next cold front, with winds turning to southerly and increasing to near cautionary levels. Winds will continue to increase behind the front, with a period of advisory level winds expected Sunday and Sunday night. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 305 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today - Thursday)... A cool and dry air mass is continuing to fill into the area, as broad surface high pressure sets up northwest of Florida. Light northerly winds over the area are allowing weak cold air advection to continue, with afternoon highs generally only expected to top out in the 60s after a cool start to the morning. An elevated pocket of moisture is already allowing some cirrus clouds to sweep across the area, but otherwise mostly clear skies are expected today. Winds will continue to subside and veer to more northeasterly tonight, supporting a decent radiational cooling setup under clear skies. Overnight lows will generally be comparable to this morning, though some localized areas could see temperatures dropping a few degrees cooler where strong radiational cooling is favored. The surface ridge will continue to shift east into northern Florida Thursday, increasing the northeasterly low level flow. This will translate to moderating temperatures under sunny skies, with near normal highs Thursday afternoon. LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Tuesday)... Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure holding across Florida late in the week will keep mild and rain free conditions in place, with cool mornings and warm and sunny afternoons. A developing mid level trough over the southern plains on Saturday will help fuel a fast moving surface low crossing the southeastern states through the weekend, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Increasing southerly winds ahead of this front will allow temperatures to continue to trend warmer on Saturday, with highs from the mid 70s to around 80. This southerly low level flow will also allow for building moisture, fueling scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage Saturday night and Sunday. Another cold snap is expected behind the front, with lows approaching freezing over the Nature Coast Monday and Tuesday morning, and dropping into the upper 30s and 40s farther south. Highs on Monday afternoon are forecast to only reach into the mid to upper 50s from around Interstate 4 north, and low 60s to the south. Winds will quickly turn to easterly on Tuesday as strong high pressure crosses the eastern seaboard, allowing temperatures to begin to moderate again Tuesday afternoon. FIRE WEATHER... A cool and dry airmass is holding in place over the area today as high pressure builds in north of Florida. Relative humidity percentages will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s this afternoon. On Thursday afternoon, even drier air is expected over the Nature Coast, with a few hours of critical humidity values possible, but wind speeds and ERC values will be too low to support red flag conditions. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 64 46 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 65 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 64 44 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 64 36 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 62 52 68 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close PREV DISCUSSION...18/Fleming UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...72/Noah