045 FSUS46 KLOX 161233 QPSLOX QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 417 AM PST WED JAN 16 2019 PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0400 ON DAY 1 ONLY. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT. THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: WED JAN 16 2019 THROUGH TUE JAN 22 2019. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY... LSRC1:CAMBRIA 0.0 LGT LGT LGT | 0.3 0.5 SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA 0.0 LGT LGT LGT | 0.3 0.5 NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.0 LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.4 0.9 SLO: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.20-0.50 FTHLS/MTNS 0.25-0.50 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2000-0400 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 SANTA BARBARA COUNTY... SIYC1:SANTA MARIA 0.0 LGT LGT LGT | 0.2 0.5 SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.0 LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.3 0.4 GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.0 LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.6 0.9 SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.0 LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.6 0.8 SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY 0.0 LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.5 1.0 SBA: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.25-0.50 FTHLS/MTNS 0.25-0.50 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2100-0400 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 VENTURA COUNTY... FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.4 0.5 HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.6 0.6 MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM 0.0 LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.7 0.7 VTUC1:VENTURA CITY 0.0 LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.3 0.6 MORC1:MOORPARK LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.3 0.4 CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH LGT LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.5 0.8 VTU: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.25-0.50 FTHLS/MTNS 0.25-0.50 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2300-0400 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 LOS ANGELES COUNTY... WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT LGT LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.6 0.4 BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM LGT LGT LGT 0.2 | 0.5 0.3 PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.6 0.5 FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.5 0.3 SAUC1:SAUGUS LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.3 0.3 CQT:DOWNTOWN LA LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.2 0.2 MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA LGT LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.4 0.5 LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.25-0.50 FTHLS/MTNS 0.25-0.50 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 0100-0400 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: NO && DISCUSSION: THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LAST STORM THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MAINLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED A HALF INCH PER HOUR AND RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1-3" AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4" IN UPSLOPE AREAS. IT'S POSSIBLE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BURN AREAS DURING THE PEAK PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DUE TO RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOVE 6500 FT TODAY AND ABOVE 7500 FT BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE VENTURA COUNTY AND NW PORTION OF THE L.A. COUNTY MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. $$ KAPLAN