559 FXUS65 KTFX 161216 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 500 AM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Montana will gradually weaken through Wednesday accompanied by increasing clouds and mountain snow showers. Cold and snow return Thursday into Friday as disturbances move into the state from the southwest. Warming and some wind returns this weekend as weak high pressure develops over Montana. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure continues to degrade today as a fairly major trough begins impact the region from the southwest. Increasing clouds and scattered snow showers should begin to affect the southwest Montana mountains and West Yellowstone area this afternoon. Periods of light snow may be seen along the Continental Divide but the main disturbance will impact a more widespread area starting Thursday morning. Light upslope flow will bring precipitation to much of Central Montana through Friday but the main push of available moisture moves through pretty quickly. Winds switch back out of the southwest into early Saturday, seemingly limiting heavy snowfall over the plains. Overall total snow amounts remain similar to previous forecasts, with 2 to 4 inches possible at lower elevations and 5 to 10 inches in the mountains. Snow may be light and continuous in some places, but overall amounts remain light over 48 hours so no highlights have been issued. Temperatures cool through the next couple days. Saturday through next week...Warmer air returns to the area fairy quickly behind this weeks system. Gusty west winds return Sunday, and high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s at many locations. A few light rain/snow showers may move through the region ahead of another low pressure system moving in over the west coast Monday. This trough looks to bring another good chance of snow to Central Montana. After precipitation chances Sunday into Monday, strong high pressure builds just off the west coast, initially bringing warming conditions back to the region for Tuesday. A trough moving inland over British Columbia slides down the leading edge of this ridge Wednesday, bringing to Montana perhaps the seasons first widespread arctic temperatures. && .AVIATION... Updated 1200Z. VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Clearing skies and light winds return for most of Central Montana Wednesday. Low ceilings stretching from KCTB to KHVR along the Canadian border may linger into mid day. Clouds associated with an incoming trough begin to increase from the southwest by 21Z Wed, with some MVFR ceilings and snow possible from KBTM to KBZN and southward. Expect scattered MVFR lowering to IFR, terrain obscuration, and snow after 12Z Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 18 27 16 / 0 0 70 50 CTB 34 12 22 9 / 0 0 70 50 HLN 39 17 31 18 / 0 0 70 40 BZN 38 19 37 20 / 0 10 60 40 WEY 30 17 33 17 / 80 70 100 70 DLN 36 21 39 22 / 0 0 60 30 HVR 33 12 24 7 / 0 0 50 80 LWT 42 17 27 14 / 0 0 60 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls