383 FXUS63 KICT 160005 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 605 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 Clouds are expected to redevelop across the area this evening and tonight. One area of clouds and drizzle may develop across southeast KS where low level isentropic upglide/weak low level moisture advection is progged to increase as we move through the period. Clouds and warm air advection may keep temperatures above freezing across far southern KS while locations further north may radiate out early. As the low level easterly upslope component increase towards morning on Wed we may begin to see drizzle/freezing d s somewhat low as point soundings indicate a marginal amount of moistening of the column but there may be an area where some light drizzle occurs with temperatures below freezing across portions of central and south central KS. The shallow moist layer and isentropic upglide will allow for the possibility of some light precipitation tomorrow and tomorrow night, associated with a weak short wave. Light drizzle will begin in the southern counties and move northward and transition to freezing drizzle where sfc temps remain below freezing. Some light snow/freezing drizzle is expected in central KS friday morning. Later Friday expect rain to begin in the afternoon across the CWA as the weekend storm system approaches. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 Current model solutions suggest a more progressive storm so right now it's not looking like a long residence time with this system. However, there will be lots of moisture present, anomalies of 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Favorable coupled forcing present with steep lapse rates will allow for decent snow production. Much colder air and strong winds will be coming in with this storm. Temp anomalies will be around -2 standard deviations. Low temperatures on Sunday expected will be in the single digits with some portions of central kansas getting near zero. Wind chills of -15 to -20 degrees are possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 Just like last two nights, fog and low clouds will be main aviation concerns tonight into Wed. Low clouds and fog finally cleared off across most of the area late this afternoon, with a small area left over northeast portion of forecast area, affecting KSLN. So KSLN can expected to see LIFR conditions this evening, and likely continuing through most of the night. Feel that areas without clouds should see some 3-5sm fog develop shortly after sunset as low levels remain very moist. There is also good model agreement that the area of low clouds and fog over northeast KS will slowly shift south as a weak trough slides through, flipping winds around to the north. If this occurs, KICT-KHUT-KCNU will be the sites most affected, with LIFR conditions likely. Once these areas sock-in, they may not come up much Wed, as low level moisture advection increases ahead approaching shortwave. Not out of the question some drizzle may also be possible Wed morning as low level isentropic lift increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 32 39 31 47 / 10 20 20 0 Hutchinson 27 35 29 46 / 0 20 30 0 Newton 28 36 29 44 / 10 20 30 0 ElDorado 32 39 31 44 / 10 20 30 0 Winfield-KWLD 38 45 33 48 / 10 20 20 0 Russell 23 29 25 43 / 0 20 30 0 Great Bend 27 32 26 45 / 0 20 20 0 Salina 25 32 28 42 / 0 20 40 0 McPherson 22 34 28 44 / 0 20 30 0 Coffeyville 37 46 37 47 / 10 20 20 10 Chanute 35 42 35 43 / 10 20 30 10 Iola 32 40 33 41 / 10 20 30 10 Parsons-KPPF 38 45 37 45 / 10 20 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB/MWM LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...RBL