900 FXUS64 KOHX 152359 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 559 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A few breaks in the clouds are finally showing up on satellite near the Tennessee River. Sunshine is warming temperatures in that area as the most recent ob is reporting around 40 degrees. Closer to the I-65 corridor temps are still in the mid 30s and on the Cumberland Plateau temperatures have struggled to rise above freezing today. There's still a little hope for the Nashville area to see a couple of degrees of warming from the thinning clouds, but Crossville will likely stay chilly for the remainder of today. Low temperatures tonight will fall below freezing once again, but with fewer low clouds around during the day tomorrow, we should recover into the mid 40s to low 50s. Wednesday should be a pleasant day and rain is expected to hold off until after midnight that night. Thursday will see scattered showers and overcast skies as a fast moving weak low moves from southern Missouri through southern Indiana. Rainfall totals are forecast to be around or less than 0.25 inches. Maybe an elevated rumble of thunder, but not enough of a threat to include in the forecast. Rain should mostly exit the mid state by Friday morning allowing for a break between that system and the upcoming weekend rainfall. Expect mild temperatures and mostly cloudy skies, but take the opportunity to get any outdoor activities done, because Saturday continues to look very wet. An upper trough will dig into the central portion of the country this weekend with an intense surface low developing over Texas and rapidly moving northeast throughout the day. Ahead of the low southerly winds will push warm temperatures and moist air into Middle Tennessee. Models are indicating PWATS near 1.25 inches from early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Showers are expected to spread from west to east and be most intense in the morning and early afternoon for areas west of I-65. The heavier bands for areas east of I-65 will be in the later afternoon and evening. Embedded thunderstorms aren't out of the question thanks to decent shear values, but instability remains fairly low. Will have to keep an eye on how models handle this system as we approach the weekend. Rainfall totals of more than 2 inches will be possible from early Saturday through Saturday night. If we see totals approach or exceed 2 inches we could see some flooding issues develop. As the system continue east Saturday night much colder air will quickly move in behind the low pressure system bringing a transition from rain/sleet to snow by Sunday morning. Some accumulations will be possible depending on how much moisture remains in the area. Still a little early to nail down specific totals, but trace amount to an inch could collect especially across northern and eastern portions of the area. Either way slick conditions are expected Sunday morning and Sunday evening. Temperatures will continue to plummet Sunday night as conditions dry out. Lows in the lower teens are possible Monday morning with only a slight warm up to the lower 30s that afternoon. Good news is that the frigid temps will be short lived as zonal flow returns and highs rise into the 40s next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Low mainly MVFR clouds continue to be persistent. Models are showing possible breaks after 04Z but confidence is not all that great. Do see some cloud erosion from the south and west on satellite...so went with a period of VFR ceilings around 035 at BNA...MQY...and CKV after 04Z. Models do agree that by 08Z MVFR clouds can be expected again and stay around through the daytime hours on Wednesday. The exception will be CSV where there should be IFR to LIFR clouds after 08Z. Have clouds finally lifting to VFR at BNA...MQY...and CKV after 22Z...and becoming MVFR at CSV. Outside of the cloud challenges winds will be fairly light from the SW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......11 AVIATION........12