812 FXUS61 KBGM 140924 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 424 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A large high pressure system will keep sunny skies across most the region today. Moisture from Lake Ontario is producing some cloudiness over the Finger Lakes and central southern tier this morning, but this should gradually thin out. A weak disturbance will move through the area on Tuesday bringing more clouds and scattered flurries for the northern areas of central New York. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Early this morning weak northeast flow over Lake Ontario is producing low clouds over parts of the Finger Lakes region and central southern tier. Later this morning as a weak westerly flow develops the clouds will lift north into the lake plain and possibly into the Syracuse area while also thinning. For the rest of the area sunny skies are expected today due to a large high pressure area. Temperatures will moderate into the mid 20s to lowers 30s by this afternoon. Tonight/Tuesday...A weak upper level disturbance will approach the region late tonight and swing through on Tuesday. Both moisture and forcing is very limited with this feature so only scattered flurries and snow showers are expected from the lake plain across the Syracuse area and into the western Mohawk Valley including northern Oneida County. Northern Oneida County could see close to an inch of snow with little expected elsewhere. Lows tonight will range in the teens with highs on Tuesday reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 415 AM Update... A rather quiet mid-winter pattern expected through the short term period. A zonal flow Tuesday night, with a very weak disturbance exiting east will allow for a few scattered flurries or light snow showers mainly north and west of Binghamton. Not as cold, with lows in the 20s. A clipper system and surface low pass by well to our north on Wednesday. A moisture starved cold front swings through the area from west to east during the day; have chance PoPs for snow showers along and north of the NY/PA border, with only slight chance or less across NE PA. Precipitation and snow amounts are forecast to be very light with this frontal system...mostly a half inch or less. Locally around 1 inch could fall across northern Oneida county. It will be seasonably mild, with midday highs in the 30s...temperatures likely begin to fall during the afternoon hours behind the cold front. Winds shift northwest 10-15 mph, with a few higher gusts. After a few lingering lake effect flurries Wednesday evening across Central NY, it looks to dry out areawide, with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds. It will be colder, with lows in the single digits to mid-teens...except 0 to 5 below in northern Oneida county. Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph in the evening decrease to less than 5 mph late at night. Minimum wind chills will be 5 below to 10 above in most locations. The daylight hours on Thursday look to remain quiet, as the aforementioned surface high slides into northern New England. At this point, the forecast is for it to remain dry through sunset, with just increasing clouds in the afternoon out ahead of the next approaching weather system. Highs will be mainly in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 415 AM Update... The extended forecast period is looking active, with more winter weather, and potentially rather snowy conditions heading our way. The first system moves through Thursday evening, night and into early Friday. Latest guidance has come into somewhat batter agreement that a slow pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley then into the Northeast during this time frame. The GFS keeps the surface low further south compared to the ECMWF, and would give a better chance for a light accumulation snowfall. Either way, light snow is now looking likely for much of the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday...with early indications for an inch or twp of snow. Unless the timing changes, during the day Friday seems rather benign, with just a chance for a few snow showers around mainly in central NY as a colder northwest flow develops across Lake Ontario. High temperatures look to reach the upper 20s to mid-30s...but temperatures could again begin to fall during the afternoon hours as cold air advection strengthens. Friday night and early Saturday look quiet and colder. A large pool of very cold arctic air looks to skirt by to our north across Ontario during this timeframe. A sprawling 1040+ mb high will build across the northern Plains, with an inverted surface ridge extending down into the Northeast US with this type of pattern am expecting some cold and dry low level air to filter into the area. Lows Friday night are forecast to dip down between about 5 and 15 above. Things could then get very interesting Saturday afternoon, Sunday and Sunday night as a potential winter storm approaches the area. Guidance has come into better agreement that upper level energy will emerge across the southern Plains/Texas panhandle region Friday evening; with a surface low redeveloping in the lee of the Rockies likely over Oklahoma. This system looks to have ample moisture associated with it as it tracks across the US. There looks to be some phasing with a northern stream disturbance...but the details such as exact track and precipitation amounts remains uncertain. Felt confident enough to bump PoPs up to high end likely Saturday evening into Sunday. Current guidance would suggest snow breaks out from SW to NE across our forecast late in the day Saturday as strong isentropic lift develops, and moisture is forced up and over the low level cold dome of air already in place. Overall the consensus is for a strengthening surface low to pass by to our south, across the Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps turn the corner, moving along the eastern sea board. Ensemble means and model consensus, show a good chance for average QPF amounts around three-quarters of an inch Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...with WPC ranging from about 0.50" NW to 1.25" SE of liquid. Its too early to pinpoint any specific, possible snow amounts, and there is even some potential for a wintry mix across portions of NE PA, depending on the track of the low. Snow ratios could be high in parts of the area with this type of set up...but again we will have to wait and see how this plays out. This period will certainly need to be watched very closely though as the potential for a plowable snowfall is increasing for much of our forecast area. Temperatures are tricky and will depend on where the above mentioned storm system tracks. It does look to be trending colder, with below average temperatures likely over the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low level moisture coming off Lake Ontario is making the early morning TAFs challenging. Current thinking is at KELM, occasional Alternate Required ceilings will occur through 09Z. At KITH, occasional Alternate Min ceilings will occur through 10Z. As the northeast flow weakens later this morning the moisture plume should fragment and move back towards the lake. Later today and flow becomes westerly KSYR could have occasional Alternate Required ceilings between 20Z-24Z. At KRME, scattered low clouds will be possible after 00Z. Otherwise for the rest of the terminals just VFR conditions with scattered cirrus. Light and variable winds becoming W/NW this afternoon around 5 knots. Outlook... Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday night...Restrictions possible in snow showers mainly KRME/KSYR, and perhaps other NY terminals. Thursday...VFR. Thursday night through Friday...A passing system will cause a good chance for snow and restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...RRM