182 FXUS62 KCHS 140608 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 108 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will lift away from the area tonight. Dry high pressure will then prevail through much of the work week. Another storm system is expected to impact the region late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: GOES-16 fog product shows widespread stratus across nearly all of the Southeast. This stratus is expected to remain in place through sunrise. The main impact will be to help keep temperatures a bit higher than they would be otherwise. Radar imagery shows what appears to be a small area of drizzle across Colleton County and western Charleston County, but it is not worth mentioning explicitly in the forecast. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s still looks to be on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry and quiet weather will return for the first half of the work week as high pressure expands into the region. Weak upper troughing and associated disturbance will swing through Monday night, but lack of deep moisture will keep rain chances silent. Extensive cloud cover and weak cold advection will limit highs to the low/mid 50s Monday and Tuesday, with a return to near normal temperatures on Wednesday. Lows are forecast to be in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will continue to keep it dry through Thursday but a weak front and upper disturbance could bring a few showers Friday. A more significant storm system is then likely to affect the area this weekend but the details are a bit uncertain at this time. Temperatures should stay above normal ahead of the weekend storm system before possibly falling back below normal by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next 6-12 hours will be tricky in trying to determine whether stratus ceilings will be IFR or MVFR. While there has been significant improvement this evening and early this morning, there is a good chance for IFR to return through sunrise. In fact, upstream observations indicate that there is still plenty of IFR out there and poised to move in from the northwest. Think the highest chances are at KCHS, so have initialized with prevailing MVFR but with a TEMPO group for IFR from 06-09z. Improvement to VFR is expected at both sites by Monday afternoon. In fact, model guidance suggest that KCHS will actually scattered out and lose its ceiling all together. MVFR could then return in the evening at both sites. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR is then expected through late week. Restrictions possible Friday into the weekend due to low clouds/rain. && .MARINE... NW winds will turn northerly and increase slightly tonight as the cold front moves farther offshore but conditions will remain below advisory thresholds. Monday through Friday: High pressure will prevail through much of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...ETM/JRL