932 
FXUS64 KLUB 140421
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1021 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

.AVIATION...
A large batch of IFR and MVFR CIGS was located over the KLBB
terminal and south of the KCDS terminal, respectively. This cloud
layer will continue to move north through the early morning hours
spreading into the KPVW and KCDS terminal while further lowering.
IFR is expected to encompass all TAF sites on Monday morning.
Furthermore, visbys will slowly lower as the low CIGS move in. An
improvement to VFR is expected by late morning at all TAF sites
with surface winds turning southwesterly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Stubborn low clouds have wreaked havoc on highs across the Rolling 
Plains and TX Panhandle this afternoon, keeping temps in the chilly 
30s instead of the "milder" 40s. The upper level low that 
successfully slipped under our omega blocking feature over the Pac-
NW was beginning shear into the lower zonal flow of the current 
split flow regime that is covering the Continental U.S. The low is 
currently producing snow across the mountains of NM and possible 
virga showers in the lower terrain into the TX Panhandle. This 
feature will disintegrate into a mild disturbance before washing 
out completely, thus leaving our current dry weather in tact. 
However, enough low level moisture will be present for one more 
morning of freezing fog, this time, favoring areas on the Caprock.

One observed change with this forecast is the earlier breakdown of 
the omega feature. Models are now showing this feature beginning to 
stretch into the flow on Monday afternoon instead of Tues. Attm, it 
doesn't seem to impact our weather, but it does allow at least a 
weak trough to sweep across N. TX and OK on Thursday with the 
possibility of some precip. May be a feature to watch if it could 
establish earlier over the Rockies. Otherwise, main open troughing 
feature over the Rockies, a result of a Pacific storm that will spin 
just off the coast of WA/OR Wed into the Thu, will push a Pacific 
front through our region late on Friday. We'll also be eyeing two 
waves of Arctic air traveling southward through Canada, the first 
set to arrive in West Texas by Saturday morning. This first wave 
appears to be the weaker of the two, though it will certainly create 
a contrast with the 60s we'll experience in the days leading up to 
the FROPA. Some slight chance PoPs have been introduced for
Saturday, though confidence in these is still low attm. The 
second surge of cold air appears to be the stronger of the two, 
but models are in great disagreement on the timing of this surge.
With many factors to consider in the long-term such as, the depth
of this first surge, the amount of remaining snow- pack north of 
us, just to name two small factors, we will not dwell on the 
second surge for now.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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