139 FXUS63 KDLH 132115 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 315 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019 A shortwave was seen at water vapor imagery moving through southern Manitoba this afternoon toward the Northland. Cloudy skies covered most of the Northland ahead of this feature. There was some clearing over parts of northern Wisconsin and additional clearing will occur over our eastern Wisconsin zones before clouds move back in. We expect some light precipitation with the shortwave tonight into Monday with a mix of light snow/flurries and freezing drizzle. Soundings suggest enough saturation in spots for all snow over parts of northern Minnesota once the better lift arrives but before and after, a lack of ice may result in freezing drizzle. We don't expect much snow/ice accumulation, but just a little freezing drizzle can cause slick spots on untreated roads. The precipitation will be over by late morning in Minnesota and linger longer over northern Wisconsin. There will be clearing skies in far northern Minnesota in the afternoon but clearing further south will come near or after sunset. Clouds will hold temperatures up in most areas tonight with lows from 19 to 25. Highs Monday will be in the mid twenties to lower thirties. Monday night will be dry as the shortwave will have exited the region. Clouds will increase again overnight and lows will range from the single digits in the Arrowhead to the teens over our southern zones. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019 Relatively mild weather Tuesday will be followed by plummeting temperatures through the rest of the week. Waves of Arctic air will invade the region beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening when a Canadian Clipper's cold front moves through the Northland. This Clipper will track from southern Manitoba to far northwest Ontario and to Quebec Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and it will bring a dusting of snow to northeast MN. This first round of Arctic air will be followed by much colder air when another cold front moves through Thursday. High temperatures will slide from highs in the upper 20s and low 30s Tuesday to subzero highs by Saturday. Dangerous wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero are likely Friday night into Saturday morning. The cold northwest to north wind flow over western Lake Superior during the middle and latter half of the week will cause light lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019 MVFR conditions are seen across the terminals early this afternoon with IFR conditions at KBRD with low ceilings and low visibilities observed. Low stratus will continue to be in place through the afternoon and into this evening. A small area of clearing is seen across northwestern Wisconsin and is expected to pass through KHYR over the next few hours before the low ceilings return. A cold front will push into the region overnight, keeping the low ceilings in place and bringing a chance for a few light snow showers and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle. Confidence on the freezing drizzle remains low and have highlighted the best chances for light snow, but it should remain light enough that no visibility restrictions are expected. Some patchy fog will also be possible overnight, primarily at KBRD, which may lead to areas of MVFR visibility. KINL may start to see ceiling improvements towards VFR late in the period, but MVFR looks to hold on for most through the period before improvements arrive Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 13 2019 There are strong southwest winds over western Lake Superior today because of more pronounced pressure gradient, and those winds will continue until late tonight. The winds and resulting waves will cause hazardous conditions for small vessels along the Minnesota North Shore and along the Bayfield Peninsula of the Wisconsin South Shore until late tonight. A weak cool front will move south across Lake Superior late tonight and Monday morning, and northerly winds will develop after its passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 24 30 17 27 / 30 20 0 10 INL 19 26 9 25 / 20 0 10 30 BRD 22 30 15 27 / 10 10 0 10 HYR 23 33 18 31 / 20 20 0 10 ASX 25 33 20 31 / 30 30 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ140-141. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...Grochocinski AVIATION...BJH MARINE...Grochocinski