096 
FXUS63 KFSD 131721
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1121 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

The northern Plains continues to sit under an area of weak upper 
level forcing, with a relatively stagnant and nearly saturated air 
mass in the low levels. This situation is expected to persist for 
most of the day today, with low cloud cover being slow to thin and 
clear. Patchy fog will also linger through the morning, given the 
lack of wind and mixing. A spit of drizzle or a flurry cannot be 
completely ruled out where the status deck is thickest, but most 
will remain dry due to the lack of lift in the stratus layer. 
Temperatures remain mild, with low to mid 30s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

South central South Dakota will begin to see some clearing tonight, 
but clouds are quick to return on Monday as a quick-moving shortwave 
trough moves through the northwesterly flow aloft. This dry system 
will have little influence on surface conditions. Tuesday also looks 
mild, with highs in the 30s.

Northwesterly flow continues Tuesday night into Wednesday, but a 
surface high pressure is forecast to push southward from Canada 
bringing cooler air and light north winds mid-week. On Thursday, 
the upper level pattern begins to change, as the ridge over the 
western U.S. breaks down. This change allows a well- defined 
shortwave to move through the central Plains during the Thursday 
night/Friday timeframe. The bulk of the energy and lift with this 
system continues to look like it will track south of the region, 
but lift on the northern periphery of the circulation still looks 
strong enough for light accumulating snow over the tri-state area.
Details on precipitation amounts/timing are still low confidence 
this far out. However, higher confidence exists for a change to 
much colder temperatures, as a reinforcing push of arctic air
looks likely in the wake of the trough. Well below seasonal 
normals are likely Friday into the weekend, with single digit high
temperatures not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

Stratus has remained stubborn to erode and don't expect a whole 
lot of progress on this through the afternoon hours either, 
especially at KFSD and KHON. Meanwhile, the edge of the clearing 
has made its way to just outside of KSUX and expect them to begin 
to scatter out shortly. Soundings continue to hint that KHON and 
KFSD may see some breaks in the ceilings into the evening hours 
but very well could fill back in overnight into early Monday 
morning. Have reintroduced some restrictions late in the TAF 
period, although these will likely still need to be adjusted in 
future issuances depending on model trends. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...Kalin