840 FXUS61 KCAR 131103 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 603 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in western Quebec will build toward the region through Monday. The high will remain over the area into Tuesday and will be followed by a strong cold front Wednesday and another high builds into the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:03 am update: The main update at this time was to the sky grids early this morning. There are patches of stratocu in the Saint John Valley and parts of the North Woods. The sky grids were increased through mid morning in these areas. Otherwise, only some minor tweaks based on the latest observations. Previous discussion: 1040mb High pressure centered along the Ontario/Quebec border will continue to slowly build toward the region through tonight. The high will slowly weaken and is expected to be centered in western New England by 12Z Monday. Today will be sunny and temperatures will be about 5 degrees above Saturday's highs, but will still be about 5 degrees below average. There is one small area of statocu in far northwest Maine that should dissipate this morning. Tonight will be clear and cold with light/calm wind and strong low level inversions will form. Lows may drop to 20 below or even a bit colder in the northwest valleys with 5 below to 5 above Down East. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The work week starts on a quiet note weather wise as we will remain between weather systems. Low pressure will be exiting eastward out into the open Atlantic, while the next cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies across the region on Monday with highs just a few degrees below seasonal norms. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest Monday night. The front will begin to cross northern areas later Monday night through early Tuesday. The front is not expected to have much moisture associated with it, although a few flurries or isolated snow showers can't be totally ruled out with the passage of the front, mainly across northern and western areas. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs will once again be a few degrees below normal fro this time of year. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clouds will increase Tuesday night as a weak warm front approaches. Some light snow is expected to break out across northern areas by Wednesday morning as the front lifts north. Will maintain likely pops across the far north Wednesday morning where a few places may pick up and inch or two of snow accumulation. A small area of low pressure will move east across Quebec early Wednesday and then to the north of the Gaspe Peninsula by Wednesday evening. A surge of arctic air will move into the region behind this system later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The arctic air may be accompanied by scattered snow showers and perhaps a snow squall. Low temperatures by Thursday morning across the north will fall to around zero to the single digits below zero. Wind chill advisories will likely be needed for northern and central areas later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Thursday is shaping up as a very cold day with temperatures several degrees below normal for this time of year under mainly sunny skies. Clouds begin to increase Thursday night ahead of the next weather system approaching from the west. The next chance of snow will be on Friday as an area of low pressure crosses the region. At this time, it looks like a light to moderate snowfall can be expected on Friday. That system moves away Friday night. Another potential storm system may bring more snow to the forecast area later next weekend but lots of uncertainty on that one this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours at the northern and eastern Maine terminals. A few patches of lower clouds may affect KFVE until 14Z with local MVFR ceilings. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Monday thru Tuesday. IFR is possible in light snow across the north Wednesday morning, with MVFR/IFR possible all terminals in scatterd snow showers and possible squalls later Wednesday afternoon and evening. VFR returns for Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Will extend the freezing spray advisory for a couple of hours until 9 am this morning as the buoys are still indicating ice accretion of 0.1-0.2"/hour. Light freezing spray will continue at times into tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels through Tuesday with SCA conditions possible by mid week. Light freezing spray will also be an issue early Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda