564 FXUS63 KILX 112354 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 554 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 Extended the winter storm warning further north to include the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal metro areas from 9 pm this evening thru Saturday evening. Winter weather advisory continues for Knox, Stark and Marshall counties during this time frame. The winter storm warning starts at 6 pm this evening for central and southern CWA and go thru Saturday night. Snowfall amounts by midnight Sat night range from 6-12 inches, with lowest around from Galesburg to Lacon north and highest amounts from Springfield and Taylorville sw. This will likely be the biggest snowfall over CWA so far this winter season. Deepening 1006 mb surface low pressure was over nw Texas into southeast NM. Low pressure to track slowly eastward into east central OK by sunrise Sat and into east central AR by sunset Sat with an inverted trof extending northward into central IL by late Sat afternoon. An area of light to moderate snow was pushing into sw IL from central and southeast MO. The snow was sw of a Litchfield to Evansville line. Models lift the light to moderate snow ne across central and southeast IL during this evening, reaching far ne CWA shortly after midnight. The heaviest snowfall to occur overnight into Saturday and models have continued northward trend of heavier snow band into central IL. Areas southeast of I-70 could still see mixed pcpn from late Sat morning into Sat evening. Snowfall amounts by 12Z/6 am Sat will range from 2-6 inches, lowest northeast of I-74 and heaviest sw CWA. Total Snowfall amounts by early Saturday evening will range from 6-12 inches. Less than 1 inch of additional snow is possible during Sat evening, with light snow lingering mainly south of I-72 overnight Sat night. Lows tonight in the upper 20s to near 30F. Highs Sat in the lower 30s with Lawrenceville approaching 35F. SE winds stay near or less than 10 mph tonight and veer ENE at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph on Saturday into Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 Low pressure to move east to the TN/AL border by sunrise Sunday and reform off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon. Some lingering moisture hanging back over southern IL to bring some light mixed pcpn to linger south of I-72 Sunday morning in south of I-70 Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the lower 30s again. Clouds to decrease from the north during Sunday night and winds to lighten up as Canadian high pressure settles se toward IL. Went colder for lows Sunday night due to fresh snow cover, with 10-15 in central IL and mid to upper teens from I-70 south. Canadian high pressure settles into central and southeast IL by Monday providing sunny skies lighter winds and seasonably cold highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lows Mon night in the upper teens and lower 20s, coldest in eastern/se IL closer to surface ridge and lighter winds. High pressure ridge shifts into the southeast states on Tuesday while deepening surface low pressure moves toward northern Lake Superior by Tue afternoon. IL will stay dry on Tue and temps start to modify with highs in the mid to upper 30s, and warming likely tempered by widespread snow pack. Dry weather generally expected from Tue thru Wed night as another Canadian high pressure settles se into the eastern Great Lakes Wed night. Highs in the mid to upper 30s Wed/Thu with areas south of I-70 possibly reaching lower 40s. Looks like increasing chances of mixed precipitation late next week toward next Fri afternoon into Sat as storm system moves into the Rockies Thu night and into the southern Plains Fri night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 554 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 Snow, becoming heavy, and deteriorating conditions will spread into central Illinois this evening. Snow should begin near 00Z at KSPI, and arrive at I-74 sites around 02Z-03Z. Initially, cigs and vsbys will deteriorate to MVFR, then IFR within another hour or two. Eventually, LIFR will be predmoninant by 6-9Z, with improvement not expected through 00Z Sunday. Winds SE 5-10 kts through 9Z, then becoming E 9-12 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Saturday night for ILZ029-031-036>038. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Saturday night for ILZ027-028-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...37