320 FXUS64 KAMA 112133 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 333 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 .SHORT TERM (through 6am Saturday)... Current center of surface low pressure continues to move east across the southern Texas Panhandles. With upslope flow with the passing low pressure system across the caprock in-conjunction with low level moisture in place behind the cold front that moved south of the Panhandle with weak surface convergence in its wake, this is producing drizzle and fog for parts of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. Northwest of the surface low pressure system is showing light rain/snow showers where better Q-Vector convergence is producing some light precipitation. General trend of hi-res model data and model guidance continues to show negative theta-e advection wrapping around the surface low on the NW side is diminishing precipitation chances through the afternoon hours. As the upper level low develops across SW Kansas and follows the surface low east, additional precipitation may develop across the OK Panhandle and parts of northern TX Panhandle along local vort maxima at the base of the upper level low providing some additional lift as we go into the overnight hours. Low temperatures at night will be around freezing but with any additional snowfall accumulations will be light at best mostly confined to the OK Panhandle. The system will exit the region by tomorrow morning with perhaps a few left over rain/snow showers in the eastern OK Panhandle. Meccariello && .LONG TERM (6am Saturday through Thursday)... With the system exiting the area on Saturday, the forecast turns pretty uneventful. There is a small chance for snow and/or a rain/snow mix for far western parts of the Texas Panhandle on Sunday. Otherwise, after tomorrow no impactful weather is on the horizon through this forecast package. In the wake of the exiting low, a Rex blocking pattern (upper level high north of a upper level low) starts to develop tomorrow over the west coast. The low in the Rex will travel east through the Four Corners region, but will dissolve as it passes over the Rockies. There may be some energy left as it ejects onto the Southern Plains, and hence our very low chance for precipitation out across the far western parts of the Texas Panhandle on Sunday. Another low travels south under the aforementioned high of the Rex, and starts to form another, albeit weak and not a traditional, Rex blocking pattern. From here on out the models really start to diverge from on another. Fortunately, it doesn't look like the Panhandles will see any impactful weather to start next week and through the middle of the week. Only noteworthy item next week will be the above normal temperatures, especially by Tuesday with mid 50s to lower 60s through at least the next few days for highs. Fire weather at this time doesn't appear to be an issue. Guerrero && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 32 42 26 42 25 / 20 10 5 10 5 Beaver OK 31 38 25 39 25 / 50 10 5 5 5 Boise City OK 31 43 26 42 24 / 30 10 5 10 5 Borger TX 33 43 28 42 26 / 30 10 5 5 5 Boys Ranch TX 34 47 27 43 25 / 20 10 5 10 5 Canyon TX 33 45 25 44 24 / 10 5 5 10 5 Clarendon TX 33 44 26 44 26 / 20 5 5 5 5 Dalhart TX 31 46 26 40 24 / 20 10 5 10 5 Guymon OK 32 40 26 37 26 / 50 10 5 5 5 Hereford TX 32 46 25 44 25 / 10 5 5 10 5 Lipscomb TX 32 39 26 41 25 / 50 10 5 0 5 Pampa TX 30 40 25 41 25 / 30 10 5 5 5 Shamrock TX 32 44 26 43 26 / 30 5 5 5 5 Wellington TX 34 46 28 44 28 / 30 5 5 5 5 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Carson...Gray...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Moore... Potter...Roberts...Wheeler. OK...None. && $$