029 FXUS64 KAMA 111732 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1132 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 .AVIATION... MVFR conditions with IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at times, especially at KAMA/KGUY where low cigs under 1 kft can be expected through around 21Z. Low cigs at MVFR/IFR levels are expected to continue past 00Z Saturday as the main weather system works its way northeast of the TAF sites. -RASN is possible at KGUY which could cause some impact but the main impact will be the low cigs. Once we go past 12Z Saturday to the end of the TAF period, cigs will slowly improve to MVFR levels, perhaps closer to IFR for KDHT. Winds throughout TAF period will be out of the north at 10-15 kts. Meccariello && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... Modest moistening of the atmosphere currently underway as deep southwest flow aloft taps Pacific moisture. Reflectivity intensities have been increasing during the past few hours with echoes in the 30 to 45 dBZ range becoming more common, primarily just south of Deaf Smith and Randall Counties at this time. Highest pops today remain across eastern parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where richer moisture, higher instability and stronger low-level convergence will be positioned, all within closer proximity to jet streak emerging from southeast New Mexico. Much cooler weather expected today, with highs 15 to 20 degrees below those of yesterday, ending up around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expecting precipitation to remain liquid most of today, with potential for a rain-snow mix to begin around 3 PM in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Expected wet-bulb cooling will advance southward well into the Texas Panhandle, but due to warm ground temperatures the threat for accumualtions of snow is quite low. Exception may be extreme northern parts of Texas and Cimarron Counties, where an inch of snow may be realized. With this possibility expected to affect less than 10 percent of each county, do not plan on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Developments will be closely monitored today and tonight. Strongest dynamics associated with rapidly-moving 700 mb trof expected between 6 PM and 3 AM Saturday, with precipitation ending by sunrise. Cockrell LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday night... Conditions will begin to improve by mid morning on Saturday as the precipitation exits to the east. Any lingering moisture on the back side of the system is expected to be north of the Panhandles in Kansas. Ridge of high pressure that will be stalled over the west will help keep northerly flow over the area. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s, and overall about 8 to 10 degrees below normal as colder air will remain in place. Models hinting at a weak impulse to move across the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. Air looks to be cold enough that if we see any precipitation, it could wetbulb out to snow. But given the time of day that the moisture is expected to move through, decided to go with a rain/snow mix. Weak ridging expected to take place Monday and Tuesday with temperatures expected to be in the lower 50s on Monday and upper 50s to near 60 on Tuesday. Extended is a bit of a different story from yesterday. Very cold air up in Canada continues to hold over the northern CONUS and the Great Lakes Region, weak impulses moving north across the Panhandles will help funnel in colder air on the back side. Do not expect any kind of arctic intrusion, but temperatures across the northern Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday may range from 5C to 10C different, given that there's still southwest flow trying to advect warmer air to the Panhandles as well. Therefore, could see 5 to 15 degree temperature differences on Wednesday and Thursday if this pattern holds. Southwest areas could be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with the northeast Panhandles struggling to get out of the 40s. Again, with the exception of the slight chance on Sunday afternoon, no precipitation expected for the extended. Weber AVIATION...06Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected at the Amarillo TAF site through 06Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings will be possible along with some light rain at the Amarillo TAF site between about 15Z Friday and 22Z Friday. Southeast to south winds 5 to 15 knots or less can be expected at the Amarillo TAF site through around 21Z to 23Z Friday when north winds 10 to 20 knots will prevail. At the Dalhart TAF site, VFR conditions will become MVFR after 19Z to 21Z Friday with some light rain possible around 21Z Friday to 03Z Saturday or so. North winds at the Dalhart TAF site 5 to 10 knots will increase to around 15 to 25 knots with some higher gusts after 14Z to 16Z Friday. At the Guymon TAF site, VFR conditions will become MVFR to IFR after 14Z to 16Z Friday with some light rain and light snow expected after 14Z to 16Z Friday. North winds at the Guymon TAF site 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 15 to 25 knots with some higher gusts after 22Z Friday to 00Z Saturday. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 29/24