380 FXUS64 KMEG 111626 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ Clouds continue to increase from west to east across the forecast area this morning. Temperatures range from the lower 30s to around 40 degrees. One band of precipitation is moving across portions of west Tennessee at this time with a large area of rain moving into east Arkansas. Have not received any new reports about precipitation type across west Tennessee but can't rule out some sleet in this area. As temperatures slowly warm, all precipitation should be rain by this afternoon. Will update forecast to remove morning wording. ARS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 821 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ There have been a few isolated reports of sleet being mixed in with the light rain that is moving across the forecast area this morning. Have updated forecast to mention a mix of rain and sleet for this morning. ARS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a surface low near northeast New Mexico while a ridge of high pressure is centered over portions of the Ohio Valley and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level shortwave trough has resulted in the development of light precipitation over North Central Arkansas back into West Central Arkansas. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 20s near the Tennessee River and lower to middle 30s across the remainder of the area. Precipitation type issues in the short term forecast remain the predominant concern in this morning's forecast issuance. Short term models indicate an area of low pressure in the Southwest United States will move into the Southern Plains by tonight and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The atmosphere over the Mid-South is still somewhat dry but is beginning to moisten up in the mid-levels of the atmosphere in response to increasing lift across the region. Short term model soundings indicate precipitation should continue to develop throughout the morning with a potential for some light sleet to initially mix in with the rain across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and Extreme Northeast Arkansas. At this time, not anticipating any impacts as ground temperatures remain above freezing with the predominant precipitation type being rain. Best precipitation chances throughout the day today should be best mainly west of the Mississippi River with lesser chances east. Precipitation chances are expected to increase for tonight into Saturday as the surface low moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. There is a potential for some light sleet to mix in for a short time with rain later tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far Northwest Tennessee. Confidence isn't particularly high on any impacts from any light wintry precipitation mixing in with rain. Nonetheless, we'll continue to monitor short term trends and reassess any winter weather potential if the forecast models suggest cooler temperatures than currently forecasted and a greater potential for wintry precipitation. Stay tuned... The surface low is expected to push into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday with precipitation chances tapering off across the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday into Sunday evening. Long term models indicate precipitation free conditions will return to the area for early to middle next week. Rain chances will return for late next week as another upper level trough moves across the region. Temperatures through the period are anticipated to average near normal for January. CJC .AVIATION...182z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will continue for most of the upcoming TAF cycle. Scattered rain showers will continue at all sites but should not be heavy enough to reduce visibility. Cigs should remain above 3000ft. Steadier showers will move in overnight into early tomorrow...maybe a bit before 12z at JBR, around 12z at MEM and MKL and around 15z at TUP. Will carry on station rain at that time with diminishing cigs. Cigs may drop to IFR levels tomorrow, with little to no improvement by 18Z. Winds will shift from the southeast late tonight into early tomorrow as the steadier rain arrives. 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$