612 
FXUS64 KSHV 111152
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
552 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

.AVIATION...
Vfr cigs btwn 5 to 10k foot bases have spread across most of area
near and north of I-20. A few lgt showers may develop before 11/18 
near the ktxk terminal but remaining vfr. Cloud decks may scatter
at times with upper lvl clouds on increase. Winds increasing from
se over ne TX to over 10 kts this aftn, remaining lgt from ne-e
elswhere. Clouds and rain chances begin increasing btwn 12/00-06z 
with mvfr cigs mostly prevailing by 12/06z. Cigs may lower as rain
comes to an end over ne TX prior to the 12/12z fcst expiration
time with moisture trapped beneath a very shallow inversion and
dry slotting aloft with south winds gradually starting to shift sw
and remaining 10 to 20 kts ne TX./07/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday Night/
Areas of lgt rain west of the Dallas area will begin movg into 
portions of area mainly north of I-30 by late this morning and
have split the mrng hours today into early and late as a result. 
HRRR has slowed progression of this rainfall to the south and east
and partly sunny skies may prevail through at least midday for 
mainly LA and East TX Lakes portions of area where highs will rise 
to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Rainfall to gradually increase
during the afternoon and eve and become widespread across most of 
region by after midnight tonight. Dry slotting to quickly take
place durg the mrng Sat with rainfall mostly diminishing across
area after midday. Dry slot westerlies will become gusty as
airmass becomes drier and may approach LWA advisory criteria,
significant as these winds may still be lgt durg the mrng as wknd
boaters may head out to the waterways in pleasant wx conditions as
rain ends. Dry air and nw breeze Sat night will allow for temps to 
quickly fall into 30s although some cool air stratocu decks may 
prevail overnight./07/.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/ 
Building high pressure at the sfc under increasingly nwly flow aloft 
in the wake of the late-week storm system will bring clear but cool 
conditions to the region for Sunday and Monday. However, sfc ridge 
to begin to drift ewd Tuesday, as upper flow begins to transition 
out of the sw ahead of a weak disturbance. This, combined with 
abundant sunshine, will allow for our temps to begin to warm up. 
Series of weak disturbances to pass ovhd through the end of the pd, 
with model solutions differing somewhat with regard to the effects 
of these passing disturbances. The GFS favors a wet solution, 
particularly across the srn half of the region, while the Euro would 
leave our fcst without PoPs through the end of the pd. Have opted to 
split the difference and keep the PoPs present but on the 
conservative side, with temps remaining above normal. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  48  60  37 /  20  80  50  10 
MLU  55  46  64  40 /  10  80  70  20 
DEQ  47  41  52  33 /  40  80  60  10 
TXK  48  44  54  34 /  30  80  60  10 
ELD  50  44  57  36 /  20  80  60  10 
TYR  56  52  55  36 /  30  70  30  10 
GGG  56  51  57  36 /  20  70  40  10 
LFK  63  54  63  38 /  10  80  20   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$