750 FXUS61 KCLE 111056 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 556 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...12z Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will continue to build over the area today. This will break down as an intensifying area of low pressure over the Mississippi valley tracks eastward over the weekend into the Mid-Atlantic Region. Surface high pressure over the central plains will follow early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lake effect flurries are coming to an end this morning as the center of the Arctic surface high pressure slips southeastward over the northern Great Lakes Region. Drier air and lighter winds are cutting off the snow machine for now. Winds will become light and variable later today but it looks like we will stay mostly cloudy for much of the area. There will be some breaks in the clouds from time to time. A light easterly flow will return tonight as well as increase in high level cloudiness because of our next storm system developing in the Central U.S. We will be cold tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s but will remain dry. We will be tracking a shield of light snow developing over the Ohio River Valley and advancing across Ohio during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Light snow will become likely for the southern two thirds of the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The highest snowfall is expected the further south into portions or Central and Southern Ohio with this event. Lighter amounts further north. We will keep an eye on the track. Any shift in the track of the storm system will wobble the snow amounts north or southward. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Elongated vort max over the Ohio Valley will be shunted south on Saturday night as an upper trough slides across the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Snow will linger into the evening across mainly central and southern portions of the area before quickly drying from north to south as low level flow shifts around to the northeast. Lows on Saturday night will be above normal given the precipitation and clouds. Clouds will tend to clear on Sunday with high pressure building south over the area by Sunday night. Once clear, good radiational cooling conditions will develop with most areas dropping into the teens. Seasonal values expected on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The forecast area will be under the influence of a generally dry northwest flow through the extended periods. Surface low pressure will pass north of the lakes on Tuesday with a back door cold front settling south into the area on Wednesday. Disagreement remains between the models with respect to the degree of cooling with the 00Z/11 ECMWF keeping the coldest air north of Lake Erie while the GFS is at least 6C cooler at 850mb by 12Z Thursday. An early day high may occur on Wednesday with temperatures trending cooler into Thursday. There will be a chance of snow showers, mainly in the snowbelt but any accumulation would be light as we are expected to dry out quickly. Will take a blended approach to temperatures until confidence increases on either solution. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... MVFR ceilings to gradually becoming VFR later today. There will be slow clearing from southwest to northeast of the MVFR cloud deck with everyone likely seeing VFR conditions by late afternoon and evening. Winds will be light northwest to westerly 5 knots becoming light and variable below 5 knots later this morning through the evening. Winds will be light easterly 5 knots overnight. High and mid level cloudiness will increase tonight. There are no significant aviation impacts expected during the next 24 hours other than MVFR ceilings this morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday into Sunday in snow showers. && .MARINE... High pressure overhead will maintain light winds today. Winds shift around to the east on Saturday ahead of weak low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley. Winds back around to northeast Saturday night into Sunday morning and increase to near 20 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on the central basin of Lake Erie. The Small Craft will be short lived on Sunday with high pressure building in Sunday night into Monday. Southwest winds will be on the increase late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...KEC