577 
FXUS63 KFSD 110853
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
253 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

Mid-level and low clouds will increase today as a weather system 
enters the central and southern Plains. The forecast still looks dry 
during the daytime, with temperatures this afternoon similar to 
those recorded yesterday, but could feel a bit cooler given the 
increased cloud cover.

The bulk of the precipitation associated with the main weather 
system should stay well to the south this evening and overnight. 
That being said, a very light wintry mix is possible during the late 
evening through Saturday morning, given near-saturation in the 
lowest several thousand feet. There will also be a subtle, weakening 
vorticity maximum passing over the area during the early morning 
hours Saturday, so this could provide just enough lift for light 
freezing drizzle. An inhibiting factor could be dry air layers, as 
many weather models don't fully saturate the low levels overnight, 
making it hard for drizzle to make it to ground. And if this was not 
enough, some places will see temperatures in the saturated layers 
approaching -10 C, so flurries could take over as the predominant 
precip type where colder air pushes south.

With all these factors in mind, have kept very low PoPs in the 
forecast for now, since accumulations look minimal, with less than
a hundredth of an inch for most. The only exception looks to be 
over areas near Storm Lake, IA where moisture is a bit deeper; 
however, even there, a couple hundredths of an inch look like an 
upper bound. Temperatures will be cooler, but around seasonal 
averages for Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday evening through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

By Saturday evening, precipitation will have moved out of the 
region, with a return of a quiet northwest flow pattern aloft. 
Temperatures through Tuesday continue to be mild for mid-winter, and 
a few 40s could sneak in for daytime highs on Monday. On Wednesday, 
a more seasonal Canadian air mass looks to push south, and this 
would bring temperatures down closer to averages for the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Stratus
will begin to push into KHON after 03Z Friday night, and there
will be a possibility of flurries or very light freezing drizzle
developing at the end of the TAF period.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...JM