932 FXUS64 KLCH 110532 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1132 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 .AVIATION... Quiet night over night... looking for a few clds around 080 otherwise ceilings to remain abv 120. VSBY will rmn abv 6 miles. Next system brings in clouds by the aftn hours w/ precip xpcd drg the eve Friday into the ovrnght hrs on Saturday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019/ AVIATION... CI will move acrs the skies thru the ovrnght hrs... as vsby will rmn abv 6sm. Clouds to move twrds the aftn hrs tmrw with rains following eve timeframe. VFR flight conds. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... High pressure continues to dominate much of the central U.S. this afternoon resulting in very light winds across the region. A low level cloud shield associated with a moisture plume in the vicinity of a developing surface low across northern Texas continues to slowly infiltrate parts of southeast Texas. The cloud cover is expected to work its way into southwest Louisiana later this evening into tonight. However, guidance is in good agreement on a surge of drier air from roughly 925mb to 850mb swinging around the western side of the departing high pressure area on Friday which should erode most of the cloud cover at least through late afternoon. The surface low slides quickly east across north Texas and into southern Arkansas tomorrow night into Saturday morning swinging a cold front through the area. Scattered to numerous showers will accompany the front, but instability will be very weak and only a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Guidance has been steadily cooling with regards to QPF totals with most reliable models as well as WPC now indicating a half inch or less. Drier, cooler air quickly advects into the region behind the front with high temperatures Sunday expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday. High pressure builds across the region Monday into Tuesday maintaining the cool, dry conditions before sliding east of the area Wednesday. Considerable uncertainty in the extended range as guidance diverges significantly from Wednesday forward. Both the GFS and Euro develop a surface low across the northern gulf. The Euro pulls the associated moisture plume north into the area while the GFS keeps the activity completely offshore. Hedged by carrying low end PoPs Wednesday through Friday morning pending higher confidence. Jones MARINE... Moderate northeasterly winds this afternoon will shift east then southeast tonight into Friday as high pressure moves east of the area and low pressure develops across Texas. This low will drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Friday night and Saturday in association with the frontal passage. An offshore flow is expected to prevail in the wake of the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 35 57 44 64 / 0 0 70 80 LCH 41 61 52 69 / 0 0 50 70 LFT 39 61 51 69 / 0 0 40 70 BPT 45 62 54 68 / 0 0 70 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...19