107 
FXUS63 KFGF 102351
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
551 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

Update confined to matching current sky and temp trends across the
area this evening. Skies have cleared a bit more to the east and
south than anticipated and have adjusted accordingly. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

Precip in our northeastern counties and temperatures will be the
main concerns for the period.

Shortwave moving through southern Canada will help push a surface
trough of low pressure into the Dakotas tonight and tomorrow. Some
very light radar returns have been going on over northwestern MN,
but nothing so far is reaching the ground. Nearest report of any
snow on surface obs in up at Dauphin, Manitoba, which matches QPF
on the NAM as well as several of the high resolution models. The
inverted surface trough will move into the RRV tonight, with a
weak cold front coming down behind it for tomorrow. Models are in
pretty good agreement with taking most of the precip over central
Manitoba into Ontario, with some light QPF making it into the Lake
of the Woods region. Continued to keep some 20-30 POPs going in
that region, but think any amounts will remain in the flurries to
dusting range.

As for temperatures, think there will be enough breaks in the
clouds tonight to allow readings to fall into the single digits 
above zero, even with the thermal ridge over the area. Some cold
air advection tomorrow but temps will be fairly similar to today
and mainly in the teens. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

(Fri night through Mon)

Ridge axis will offer building heights over the region as we enter 
the weekend, with moderating temps and a continuation of dry 
weather. 850 mb temps challenging or exceeding the 0C mark could 
translate to near freezing sfc temps, for at least part of the 
region. This could be mitigated by more northwesterly flow aloft, 
and light winds Sat only shifting to S-SW on Sun. Nevertheless above 
average temps will prevail on into Mon.  

(Mon night through Thu)

Expansive Hudson Bay upper low edging southward Mon night/Tue will 
put arctic air back in play. Light snow is possible during part of 
Tue (especially northeast areas) as front pushes through the 
forecast area. Ensemble members and deterministic guidance depict 
this return to the cold with readings in the teens on Tue dropping 
toward the below average single numbers above zero for Wed and Thu. 
Depending on wind speeds, this may create some overnight wind chill 
impacts during this time.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

VFR with south winds this evening will give way to mvfr and north
winds tomorrow morning. Expecting a MVFR deck to push south with
the cold front reaching the DVL, GFK and TVF sites around 12Z and
BJI and FAR by 16Z. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK