139 FXUS63 KMPX 101736 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 237 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows north-south oriented high pressure centered over western Ontario province extending through the Mississippi River valley to the Gulf coast. A low pressure center sits over southern Saskatchewan province with a warm front extending SSE into central Kansas. Aloft, a ridge axis continues to slowly shift east from the Plains. A swath of mid- high level moisture on the leading edge of the ridge will maintain partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the area today into Friday. At the surface, the high pressure will be the prevailing feature, keeping the area dry but also allow for a warming trend to continue as the high slides to the east of the area. After lows bottom out in the single digits this morning, highs will jump to the upper teens to upper 20s, a roughly 10 degree jump from highs experienced yesterday. The increased cloud cover plus modest warm air advection will allow for more mild temperatures tonight, with lows 10-20 degrees. The warming trend will continue into Friday despite continued partial cloud cover as another 10-degree jump in max temps is expected. Highs on Friday will run from the mid 20s to mid 30s. The aforementioned low will drop through the Dakotas and into southern MN by late day Friday. However, the storm will be rather moisture-starved, mainly due to a stronger southern- stream low taking up the Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce precipitation over the mid-and-lower Mississippi River Valley regions. The precipitation from the southern stream system is expected to remain south of MN/WI, while a trailing trough to the north of the northern-stream system may produce some snow showers over far northern MN. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 Tranquil conditions are expected throughout the extended portion of the forecast with no precipitation expected across the entire WFO MPX coverage area. The weak surface trough will linger over the area into Saturday but will have insignificant moisture available for it to produce anything outside of cloud cover for the region. High pressure, originating from the Four Corners region, will return to the area Sunday and linger into Tuesday. A weak cold front will drop through the region Tuesday into Wednesday but is expected to be dry and not produce any precipitation. Temperatures will continue to run above normal over the weekend into the early portion of next week. The passage of the mid-week cold front will nudge temperatures back down to near normal values going into the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 VFR conditions are forecast for this period with periods of mid- to high level clouds. Winds will remain near 10-15 kts across Western MN and near 5 kts in Eastern MN and West Central WI through the afternoon. Winds remain predominately out of the southeast through 18Z Friday. KMSP... VFR. No significant weather impacts are expected. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...MVFR ceilings likely. Wind NE 5 kts. Sun...MVFR ceilings likely. Wind SE to SW 5 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...JPC LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...AMK