382 FXUS64 KMEG 101042 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 442 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 .DISCUSSION... A quiet and cold night across the Mid-South. Latest surface analysis places an area of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures are generally at or slightly below freezing across the area, with Memphis International the outlier at a balmy 36 degrees. With the combination of winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, wind chills are in the low to mid 20s across much of the area. Today will be our last day of sun across the Mid-South probably until next Tuesday. Expect high pressure to slide east throughout the day with temperatures only climbing into low to mid 40s this afternoon. Clouds will move in late tonight for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s east of the river, with near freezing readings along and west of the river. Models are still kind of struggling with tomorrow's system with respect to the surface low track. Nonetheless, the timing of the precipitation has been pushed back until late tomorrow afternoon and temperatures are coming in a little warmer. This roughly translates to lower confidence in really seeing any wintry precipitation tomorrow night. The surface low is expected to organize Friday afternoon over the Texas Panhandle and move eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The preferred Euro solution continues to depict a due east trajectory, while the GFS and NAM keep push low a bit further south and try to draw in colder air across the north. Decided to stay the course with the Euro solution, which will keep most of the wintry weather to our immediate north. Temperatures will be extremely borderline on Friday night, so opted for mainly rain with a chance of a snow and little to no accumulation expected. If we do receive any wintry mix, it would be across the northern tier of counties mainly the Missouri Bootheel and extreme northeastern Arkansas. By Saturday morning all precipitation to turn to rain as WAA becomes the dominant player. Highs will warm into the 40s areawide. Expect widespread showers across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon. Models are generating QPF values between a half and three quarters of an inch. The surface low will track directly over the Mid-South on Saturday night and lift quickly to the east of the area by Sunday morning. Another weak shortwave will push through the area on Sunday and squeeze out any residual moisture in the form of light rain. A cold front will drop down on Monday, but with limited moisture only clouds are expected at this time. We will finally break out on Tuesday as surface high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will rebound back to near normals with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s. The pattern is expected to remain progressive the rest of the week, with a few impulses traversing the area by late next week. AC3 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Set VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 to 30 hours. Light northerly winds will become NE at 8-10 KTS by 15Z. Speeds will diminish after 00-01Z. KRM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$