646 FXUS63 KICT 092345 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 545 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 357 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019 Early this afternoon, surface high pressure is elongated north to south across the Great Plains. Back to the west, lee-side troughing is beginning to be established over the High Plains. As the high shifts east, return flow will develop across our area later today through Thursday. Significant WAA is not anticipated, but increasing thickness values will support near to slightly above normal temperatures. Within the return flow regime, low/mid level moisture advection should lead to increasing cloudcover by Thursday afternoon, potentially limiting afternoon heating. This should keep temperatures a bit lower compared to today, despite higher thickness values. Models differ on the amount of moisture return during the day Thursday. For now, we'll keep the forecast dry during the afternoon hours as it appears the low/mid levels will take a bit longer to moisten. The main focus during this period is the Friday/Saturday timeframe. A s/w approaching the California coast will move through the Four Corners region Friday and across the Central/Southern Plains Friday night/Saturday, possibly phasing with a s/w dropping southeast out of the Dakotas. The system as a whole isn't abnormally strong for this time of year, but could produce at least some minor impacts locally. A low/mid level southwesterly flow will lead to continued moisture advection Thursday evening into Friday. Initially, isentropic upglide combined with an increasing depth of moisture may be sufficient for areas of drizzle Thursday evening into Friday morning, especially south-central and southeast Kansas. With time, the depth of moisture will continue to increase and will combine with increasing WAA and large-scale ascent, producing a widespread area of light to moderate rain. Despite the weaker nature of the system, modest lift combined with anomalous PWAT values should allow efficient rainfall production for this time of year. With a continued northward trend seen in model guidance over the past couple of days, confidence is increasing that our area will see a modest precipitation event with QPF (liquid equivalent) ranging from 0.40" to 1.0". Where confidence remains lower is precip type. As the upper low deepens over central Oklahoma, there will be a subsequent increase in the NE flow/CAA. Despite the weaker nature of the system, there is quite a bit of cold air just to our north which should be easily wrapped into the system as it strengthens late Friday into Saturday. This should allow a slow transition to snow from north to south late Friday afternoon through Friday night. At this time, it looks like most areas will see at least a brief changeover to all snow at some point by Friday night. The best lift looks to be focused to our east by the time the transition to snow occurs and this should limit snowfall rates/amounts. In addition, a dry slot punching in from the SW Friday night may lead to less than optimal moisture in the snow growth region. In fact, this may even allow the snow to transition to a period of freezing drizzle, especially southeast Kansas. For now, thinking the best chance of at least minor impacts from accumulating snow will be along the I-70 corridor where a convergent NE flow will be collocated with the deepest moisture. Even there, though, warmer ground/road temps should limit accumulations/impacts. In general, a half an inch to as much as 2" of snow is expected areawide, with the greatest amounts across central Kansas and northern sections of southeast Kansas. While there may be some potential for Winter Weather Advisory criteria to be reached, the marginal thermal profiles and p-type uncertainties lead to confidence being too low to issue any winter products with this forecast. Martin .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019 In the extended period, there is general agreement on a zonal flow regime with mostly dry conditions expected and not significant intrusions of warm or cold air. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019 Massive upper-deck ridge sprawled across the central third of the U.S. insures all areas remaining in VFR status thru Thu night. A weak area of low pressure will attempt to develop from eastern WY/ Nebraska Panhandle to NE NM on Thu to enable winds to become S/SE ~15kts sustained in most areas toward 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 30 49 37 39 / 0 0 20 90 Hutchinson 29 49 38 39 / 0 0 20 90 Newton 29 48 37 38 / 0 0 20 90 ElDorado 28 49 36 38 / 0 0 30 90 Winfield-KWLD 30 50 37 38 / 0 0 30 90 Russell 29 49 35 40 / 0 0 10 80 Great Bend 30 50 36 40 / 0 0 10 80 Salina 28 49 38 40 / 0 0 10 80 McPherson 29 48 37 39 / 0 0 10 80 Coffeyville 26 50 38 39 / 0 0 30 90 Chanute 25 48 36 38 / 0 0 30 90 Iola 24 47 36 38 / 0 0 30 90 Parsons-KPPF 25 48 37 39 / 0 0 30 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...EPS