139 FXUS65 KABQ 082349 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 449 PM MST Tue Jan 8 2019 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours with few-bkn high clouds streaming northeastward across portions of the state. Winds will remain light. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...231 PM MST Tue Jan 8 2019... .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will become increasingly more active toward the end of the week as moisture increases over the southwestern United States. Wednesday and Thursday will feature increasing cloud cover with a few rain and high terrain snow showers over southern areas of New Mexico. A storm system will cross the region Thursday night and Friday and bring greater coverage of rain and mountain snow showers to central and northern New Mexico. Temperatures will trend below normal for much of the area with this system into Friday. A series of fast moving storm systems will then begin moving into New Mexico this weekend and continue through all of next week. && .DISCUSSION... A large scale upper level storm system inching toward the Pacific Northwest the past few days has been forcing southwest flow aloft over the desert southwest. Overall tranquil weather has been the result with near normal temperatures and periodic bouts of high cloudiness. Gradual snowmelt will continue today and Wednesday and this will allow for patchy fog development in northern and western valleys each night. Changes will begin Thursday as a piece of upper level energy breaks off the parent low center and ejects eastward across the southwest CONUS. Thick cloud cover will spread northeast over NM Thursday while the upper level wave attempts to deepen near the Four Corners. 12Z model guidance is coming into better agreement showing a briefly organized baroclinic system Thursday night and Friday while a second piece of energy moves south along the Front Range. At this time it doesn't appear to result in anything significant over NM but there are increasing chances for some light snow accumulations for the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the northeastern plains by Friday morning. Temperatures will trend colder as 700mb readings fall to near -6C. Strengthening north winds behind a deepening surface low over west TX will make conditions feel quite blustery through Friday night. Extended model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the overall pattern through next week despite the chaotic evolution of several upper level highs and lows over the western CONUS. The next system looks to race through NM Saturday night and Sunday with more snow showers and chilly temps. A brief break is shown Sunday and Monday before a potential wave train begins impacting the region for the remainder of next week. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... A ridge of high pressure is currently working over NM and will continue through Wednesday, eventually sliding east by Thursday. Then, a Pacific trough will trek inland toward NM by Friday with a northern stream disturbance quickly following along with an attendant cold front. These initial disturbances will bring brief periods of precipitation to NM, but it is not expected to be widespread or of a soaking nature with many areas observing dry and relatively tranquil conditions. No critical fire weather concerns are expected, but poor smoke ventilation and inefficient mixing will be prevalent and widespread. Lee side surface troughing will induce some breezy conditions in the northeast corner of NM Wednesday afternoon, but RH values should stay at or above 20 percent, i.e, above critical thresholds. After a setback today in the eastern plains, temperatures will rebound a few degrees in the northeast Wednesday, and closer to average for all areas by Thursday, but just before another northerly wind shift approaches Thursday night into Friday. This front will accompany the aforementioned Pacific trough, with isolated to scattered rain and high elevation snow showers. A few of these showers will linger over northeast NM Friday night into Saturday as the next weaker disturbance drops in. Then, the subsequent disturbance appears to bring a bit more widespread coverage of rain and high elevation snow late Saturday into Sunday, limiting the threat of critical fire weather. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42