533 FXUS63 KFSD 082330 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 530 PM CST Tue Jan 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 143 PM CST Tue Jan 8 2019 Strong northwest winds continue this afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. Temperatures are starting to level off or fall in some locations. Winds will slowly subside later this afternoon, but will remain near or just above advisory levels along the Buffalo Ridge into the evening. Have extended the advisory slightly longer. Despite winds remaining rather breezy overnight, we should continue to see the advection of colder air southward overnight. Temperatures in portions of Southern Canada are already in the single digits, and this colder air will ooze southeast tonight. Wednesday-Wednesday Night: This will likely be the coldest period of the upcoming seven day stretch, even slightly below normal. Most of the day will be sunny, but increasing cirrus should arrive in the afternoon and overspread the region in the evening. Mid-level warm advection will bring a bit more mid-level cloud cover through the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 PM CST Tue Jan 8 2019 Thursday-Friday: Temperatures will climb back above normal on Thursday with a breezy southerly wind. A shortwave trough will dip south across Montana and into the Western Plains on Friday. It's possible to see a few flurries or sprinkles with this wave as it moves through, but most of the area will just see an increase in clouds and continued above normal temperatures. Saturday: The trough that moves through the Western Plains will pivot and move through the Lower Missouri River valley this weekend. Medium range guidance suggests this wave would only graze the local area, with the biggest impacts coming from the passage of a cold front Saturday morning. This front should knock temperatures down slightly, but still remain near or slightly above normal. Sunday-Tuesday: Medium range models continue to hint at a high amplitude ridge spreading east to start the new week. This ridge should bring a large amount of warm air east of the Rockies, pushing temperatures well above normal once again. Given the dwindling snow cover, will push temperatures to or above the 90th percentile of guidance, and towards the warmer ECMWF/MEX solutions. This should result in readings at least in the 40s and possibly 50s by Tuesday, along with continued dry conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Jan 8 2019 Skies will remain clear overnight, with breezy northwest surface winds of 15 to 25 kts continuing. These winds will keep fog out of the forecast, with no major weather impacts expected for aviation over the next 24 hours. Winds become light during the afternoon on Wednesday, slowly switching to northerly and then northwesterly during Wednesday evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038>040-050- 052>071. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dux LONG TERM...Dux AVIATION...VandenBoogart