447 FXUS63 KDLH 072340 AAA AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 540 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Colder air returns to the Northland on Tuesday with very strong northwest winds ushering in an airmass that will bring subzero low temperatures on Tuesday night. Light snow/flurries expected Tuesday, but little in the way of accumulation. Winds will gust as strong as 30 to 40 mph in parts of the Northland late tonight into Tuesday, especially across north-central Minnesota and along the higher terrain of the north shore. Winds and subzero temperatures will combine to cause wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero Tuesday night. Other than a few peeks of clear skies late today, skies will remain cloudy through Wednesday morning. On the synoptic scale a mature low is tracking east from southern Manitoba into far northwest Ontario, followed by a strong arctic high building over the Canadian Prairie on Tuesday into Wednesday. Wrap-around flow from the low to the north will bring a chance for light snow across much of the Northland on Tuesday, but with relatively weak large-scale lift and limited layer moisture, little to no accumulation is expected. Winds will be very strong as arctic air moves in late tonight through Tuesday night, with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph beginning early Tuesday morning in north-central Minnesota and spreading eastward through the day Tuesday. Wind gusts could possibly approach 50 mph in the Brainerd Lakes region Tuesday morning and across the higher terrain of the north shore late Tuesday afternoon. A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of northeast Minnesota, but confidence is not high enough that widespread gusts of 45mph and greater are likely. Blowing snow is not anticipated to be a concern given the most recent snowfall was heavy/wet, and even for areas that did not see much snow, freezing drizzle accumulated a crust of ice on top of the snow which will help prevent blowing snow. Temperature will fall through the day Tuesday, waking up to temps in the low/mid 20s, into the teens around noon, then falling into the single digits above zero by the evening commute. Lows Tuesday night will be around zero to 5 below zero in northeast Minnesota, near zero in northwest Wisconsin, with light northwest winds 5-10 mph likely persisting through most of the night causing wind chill values as cold as 10 to 20 below, perhaps as cold as 30 below zero in parts of north-central Minnesota, which may prompt a Wind Chill Advisory to be issued. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Wednesday through Thursday appear relatively quiet with some lingering lake effect going on along the south shore, but we are not looking at more than a few inches of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. A ridge axis slides across the area and bring a cold night Wednesday night. The light winds under the ridge and at least a short period of clearing skies should produce some negative double digits for overnight lows Wednesday night. Wind will be pretty light though, so am not too concerned with any wind chill headlines just yet. Thursday night through Friday night we have a fairly potent shortwave due to slide through the area. Model consistency is still poor, and most of them keep better energy to the south and the northern stream wave is not very amplified and is somewhat slow moving. However, the mid level baroclinic zone is pretty steep, and would not be surprised to see this feature amplify somewhat as we get closer in. For now have kept to chance and likely pops across the northern CWA, and will have to see how this develops in the next few days. Another ridge axis builds across the area Saturday and Sunday, producing another round of colder weather for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Much of the Northland remains socked in under a MVFR/IFR stratus deck, but some clear skies have developed over our western counties. VFR conditions are anticipated to move in from west to east. The only exception will be KHYR, which will remain in IFR/LIFR due to very low stratus and fog. There is some altostratus that is moving into our southwestern areas, which should affect KBRD, but remain VFR. A cold front will sweep through Tuesday morning, which will bring more MVFR ceilings from northwest to southeast. Northwest winds will be quite gusty throughout the day Tuesday from the cold front passage, which will bring gusts between 20 to 30 knots, possibly reaching as high as 40 knots around mid-day in some spots. Some light snow will also be possible, with the biggest impact being reduced visibilities down into MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Southerly winds finally diminishing over the lake as a trough axis moves across the area and causes winds to turn to the southwest, then to west. The Small Craft Advisory in effect for the North Shore north of Taconite Harbor remains in effect, mainly as waves are still substantial, but should fall off this evening. The westerlies behind the trough ramp up pretty quickly as cold air surges into the area tonight. Have a Small Craft Advisory set to take effect along the south shore as of 4 PM, and while we won't have those conditions initially, winds should ramp up rather quickly this afternoon and evening as the trough axis gets farther east. Strongest winds hug the south shore tonight, but expect that sometime toward morning we will need to expand the Advisory to the north shore as the winds increase still more over the lake. In fact, am concerned we may need a Gale warning along the south shore beginning on Tuesday, and continuing into Tuesday night. Have held off for now as conditions are somewhat marginal and will have to see how things do tonight before making that call. Conditions improve slowly on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 20 -2 10 / 10 20 0 0 INL 16 17 -6 7 / 20 30 10 0 BRD 20 21 -3 9 / 20 20 10 0 HYR 24 24 1 12 / 30 30 10 10 ASX 25 26 8 14 / 20 30 50 80 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121- 144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-141. && $$ UPDATE...JTS SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...JTS MARINE...LE