243 FXUS64 KLCH 071215 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 615 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 .DISCUSSION... For the 01/07/19 1200 UTC TAF package. && .AVIATION... VFR KBPT and KLCH with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS at remaining sites with occasional dips into IFR VSBYS. Morning VSBY restrictions should improve over the next couple of hours or so, though the MVFR CIGS are expected to linger at the Acadiana terminals the rest of the morning. VFR is expected to prevail through the afternoon hours amid steady and at times gusty S/SW SFC winds. Winds subside this evening with CIG/VSBY restrictions expected to return amid MSTR pooling ahead of a frontal boundary forecast to stall out to our NW. For now have brought in MVFR to all sites by 08/06Z, but expect that lower categories will be inserted in subsequent forecasts. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Southwesterly flow is noted on recent UA analysis and WV imagery over a flat ridge over old Mexico and the western Gulf, as a broad trough enters the high plains east of the Rockies. This pattern is tapping into an active subtropical jet transporting moisture acrs TX into the cntl CONUS. At the sfc, high pres ridges over the SE states and along the Gulf coast, while a cold front extends over W OK into W TX. Winds have become southerly acrs the region, allowing the return of a warmer and more moist airmass into the region. Temperatures are running ~8 to 12 degrees warmer than this time last night with readings ranging from around 50 acrs N and E portions of the area to the upper 50s acrs lower SE TX. Fog has been far more patchy this morning compared to yesterday, while a little bit more stratocu and cirrus are spreading over the area. 24 DISCUSSION... Moisture/clouds will continue to increase today as the cold front over west TX moves into the area. The front is expected to weaken and gradually stall acrs the area tonight. Weak convergence and minimal support aloft will result in low rain chcs, although a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Temperatures today ahead of the front are expected to warm into the lower 70s. Meanwhile, little in the way of cooler air will be associated with this front as lows tonight will remain mild with temperatures in the upper 50s and highs on Tuesday again climb into the lower 70s. On Tuesday, shortwave energy exiting southern Canada and moving into the Great Lakes will help to enhance a trough over the eastern CONUS. This will bring a reinforcing push of cooler air to propel the front further south and east. Better convergence along this reinforcing boundary will allow for a few more showers to develop during the day Tuesday, but coverage will still be mostly isolated to widely sctd. Cool and dry high pres will then build into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with dry weather expected to prevail through at least Thursday. Temperatures will be a little below normal with lows in the middle 30s to middle 40s and highs in the 50s. Split flow pattern develops late in the week with a southern stream disturbance crossing the southwest states. Cloud cover will increase Thursday as moisture advection increases ahead of the system. There are still some differences regarding timing and placement of a sfc low developing in response to the approaching shortwave. The placement of the low could impact sensible weather elements as next weekend approaches, with a further inland track allowing for some intrusion of the warm sector and an associated tstm threat, as opposed to the low staying just off the coast. At this time, leaned toward a coastal low solution (maintaining consistency with previous fcsts), with primarily showers expected. The best rain chcs are expected on Saturday. At this time, rainfall amounts are expected to be around an inch, but the quick movement of the system should limit excessive rainfall amounts. High pres will build into the area in the wake of the low. Dry weather is expected for late in the weekend, with cool temperatures to continue. 24 MARINE... Lt to modt onshore flow will continue through early Tuesday. A weak front will move into the area Tuesday with winds bcmg westerly, then slowly move offshore Tuesday night with offshore flow developing and strengthening by early Wednesday morning. A few showers will be possible as the front moves through. Exercise caution conditions are likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night with Advisory headlines possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift east by late in the week as the high moves east and low pres develops acrs TX. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 56 72 43 / 10 20 10 0 LCH 73 58 72 50 / 10 10 20 0 LFT 73 58 73 48 / 10 10 20 10 BPT 72 59 73 51 / 10 10 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$