805 FXUS64 KOHX 071133 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 533 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Lots of high clouds this morning are keeping temperatures up a bit. Upper 40s and low 50s are very common, though it's a touch cooler closer to the Alabama state line where the clouds are a little thinner. As we move into the daylight hours, winds are going to pick up. The surface pressure gradient tightens and we're likely to see sustained winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This is just below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts 40+ mph), but it should help clear some clouds and provide for some decent warm air advection ahead of the pre-frontal trough due in here later this afternoon. I'm going to run above temperature guidance again with the combination of WAA and compressional heating ahead of today's rain. A little climate note for today: the forecast high for BNA this afternoon is 68. Most guidance is below this by a couple of degrees, but some is above. If we see enough sun today and get above 68, the record high for today is 71 set back in 2008 and 1880. Regarding today's rain, models continue to show a very weak pre- frontal trough breaking across the TN River around 1-2 pm. This means it should be approaching the I-65 corridor right around the afternoon commute. Forecast soundings continue to show no thunder and QPFs are still really low. No one should see more than 0.20". This light rain (and eventually drizzle) will linger into the evening and overnight hours, pushing off the Cumberland Plateau prior to sunrise Tuesday. Clouds will likely stick around, however, and it'll be Tuesday afternoon before the actual front pushes through Middle TN. While not as warm as today, this means we can expect another unseasonably warm day Tuesday behind the rain. Much cooler air will follow Tuesday's frontal passage. Still thinking that we could see a 20 degree temperature difference between Tuesday and Wednesday, but at least it will be dry. In fact, it should be dry until Friday evening when our next system will be on our doorstep. This next system will be interesting as we'll already have cool air in place as it arrives, so the onset could provide at least a wintry mix. I'm still going to carry rain OR snow in the forecast due to model variances, but it's something we'll have to watch closely throughout the week as models begin to carry more similar solutions. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. Sites are dry this morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds and wind will be on the increase today, and have included low-level wind shear thru 14z for all terminals. CIGs will begin to come down west to east, starting at CKV around 15-16z. Scattered light rain is possible as the front crosses Middle TN between 19-20z today thru 02-03z Tuesday. This rain will not have a big impact on VIS, although if drizzle develops tonight or early Tuesday morning, MVFR VIS could occur at BNA/MQY/CSV. With this being a low probability right now, left out any mention of reduced VIS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........Schaper