819 FXUS63 KILX 070954 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 354 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 A broad expanse of clouds in place on satellite imagery this morning as the next rain producer edges into the Midwest. At 500 mb, the upper ridging has passed to the east as southwesterly flow sets up briefly ahead of the next wave. The surface has strong south/southeasterly flow into the region, keeping the temps up in the overnight in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Moisture is also advecting into the region, feeding the showers developing along and ahead of the front expected to move through Central Illinois later today. A fast moving system, qpf is lingering between a quarter and a half of an inch through this afternoon. Rainfall could be moderate at times, and will be accompanied by winds gusting to near 30 mph at times, mainly out of the south, then a little southwesterly. Temperatures will be somewhat limited by the rain and cloud cover, relying on the strong southerly winds to help climb into the 50s/lower 60s today. Expect rain showers to clear out of western IL shortly after noon... and eastern IL by 00z. Overnight drier air filters into the region behind the front, but T/Td spread will be close to saturation in the SE a few hours before dawn. At this point, the winds at the same time are expected to still be breezy enough to inhibit fog, but will be one area to keep an eye on as the system moves through. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019 Behind the cold front on Monday, forecast mostly dries out through much of the longer term with one slight chance snow event Fri/Fri night. Before that, though, Tuesday will be a little cooler but very windy. An increasing pressure gradient sets up as the system that dragged the cold front behind it deepens. That same developing system will set up for increased wind in the mid levels. Although the temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s, winds will also be gusting out of the NW to 35-40 mph at times. Have had to go to a CONSRaw as opposed to the blended guidance that was masking the intensity of the winds. Tuesday night/Wednesday, the region will see the result of the stronger cold advection as lows drop into the 20s...then highs limited to the upper 20s/lower 30s on Wednesday. By Wed night/Thu morning, the lows drop into the teens before modulating slowly into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 A warm front lifting through Illinois will continue increase mid- level moisture and cloud thickness. A dry sub-cloud layer is slowly saturating from virga, mainly west of I-55. Rain chances will increase after midnight for our western TAFs of PIA and SPI, and as far east as BMI later tonight. DEC and CMI will likely see a delay of steady rains until after sunrise tomorrow. High resolution guidance is pointing toward a band of steady rains affecting all TAF sites for around 4 to 6 hours tomorrow morning into early afternoon, before a cold front ushers dry air into Illinois from the west Monday afternoon. Scattered showers look to redevelop behind the main band of rain, mainly affecting our northern TAF sites along I-74. All rain should come to an end for PIA by 20z and at CMI by 23z-00z. During the rain, low MVFR or IFR clouds are expected, with visibility remaining MVFR for the most part during rain. Winds will be a concern throughout this TAF period, with gusty southeast winds to start the 06z TAFs. Gusts will increase shortly after midnight to 25KT at times. Winds are expected to become southerly by 12-13z, with gusts around 30KT Monday morning. A cold frontal passage Monday afternoon will cause winds to shift to the southwest, then the west Monday evening. Southwest gusts Monday afternoon could reach into the 25-30kt range, as cloud ceilings climb from IFR to MVFR. VFR cloud conditions are expected to develop from west to east later Monday afternoon into Mon evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon