974 FXUS63 KIND 070807 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 307 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 A couple of fronts will move through the area today into Tuesday, first bringing rain today and then windy and colder conditions for Tuesday. Another system will bring more precipitation chances around Saturday. After warm temperatures today, much colder air will move in for mid-week. Near normal temperatures will then return by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 A warm front across southwestern parts of the forecast area will move northeast this morning. Radar shows some echoes around but nothing is reaching the ground due to dry air in the mid levels. An area of rain near the Mississippi river will continue to march east today well ahead of an approaching cold front. Moisture continues to look adequate with strong low level flow bringing some into the area. Good isentropic lift along with some broader upper supported lift will help keep the band of rain going as it moves east. Therefore will continue high PoPs all areas today. Highest PoPs will be in the afternoon as the main band moves through. With temperatures already in the 50s in the warm sector of the system, will go a little above the model blend for highs. Winds will be gusty today, but clouds and rain should reduce the amount of mixing with the higher winds aloft. However, some of the short term models are much more aggressive. Will have to keep an eye on it. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The eastern half of the area could still see some light rain this evening as the bulk of the forcing exits the area. Some forcing might linger in the far east overnight, so kept some low PoPs there. A second front will move through on Tuesday, this one with much colder air behind it. However with little moisture to work with, the vast majority of the area should remain dry. Did allow for some small PoPs in the extreme northeast Tuesday afternoon to account for some potential lake enhanced rain. The main story on Tuesday will be the winds. Cold advection plus some sunshine will lead to better mixing down of stronger winds aloft. Gusts over 40 mph are possible. Will have to watch for the need for a wind advisory. Raised the initialization's winds as it often fails to capture the stronger winds. Temperatures will fall Tuesday afternoon with the cold advection. Much colder air will then move in for Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with temperatures in the teens Wednesday night. Much of the atmosphere will be dry so do not expect any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sun Jan 6 2019 As the long term begins, Canadian high pressure will build across central Indiana. This will bring below normal temperatures to the forecast area for a couple of days. Generally northwesterly upper flow will hinder any significant warm up, but temperatures should return to normal around Friday. A couple of weak clipper-type upper disturbances moving through could bring some small chances for snow to northern parts of the forecast area Friday morning, Saturday morning, and Saturday night. The rest of the forecast area looks dry at this time, and even the northern counties do not look favorable for accumulation. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 07/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1155 PM EST Sun Jan 6 2019 VFR overnight into early Monday. MVFR conditions and perhaps a period of IFR likely later in the period as a system moves in and rain overspreads the area. Mainly mid and high cloud expected overnight with winds less than 10KT, but high enough to keep significant fog out of the TAF. Expect winds to become more southerly and stronger, with gusts in the 25-30KT range from late morning on tomorrow. Low level wind shear will be possible, primarily at LAF but may need added at the other sites depending on model trends. Widespread rain showers expected during the day tomorrow. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...Nield