160 
FXUS64 KMEG 070328
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
928 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019

.UPDATE...

Another pleasant evening is ongoing around the Mid-South.
Temperatures remain largely in the mid to low 50s, though some
areas are already into the 40s. Have made some adjustment to 
overnight lows over northeast Mississippi, reducing by a degree or
two as current trends suggest. Otherwise the forecast is on 
track.


ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

The Mid-South is experiencing a beautiful warm day. Current 
temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s. The warm temperatures 
will continue through Tuesday when a cold front will push into the 
region ushering in much colder air. 

Models continue to show a small band of showers developing ahead
of pre-frontal trof Monday morning across Northeast Arkansas. This 
band will quickly push southeastward through the CWA during the 
afternoon hours into Monday Night. Only expect a couple of 
hundredths of QPF to fall with the band thus should not impact any
ongoing river flooding. In addition, not every location may even 
see rain as the models show the line diminishing as it pushes 
east. Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the lower to mid
60s.

The cold front will push into Northeast Arkansas Tuesday morning
and will quickly push southward through the CWA. Expect highs to
occur around mid-day and then begin falling during the late 
afternoon hours. Highs will range from the upper 50s across 
Northeast Arkansas to the mid 60s across Northeast Mississippi.

The rest of the week looks chilly as Canadian high pressure slides 
southward and a large scale upper trof remains over the Eastern 
2/3rds of the United States. Highs on Thursday may struggle to 
even get out of the upper 30s across Northeast Arkansas, the 
Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee. Conditions will be dry
through Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, models continue to disagree on solutions with
both the ECMWF being consistent with a shortwave digging out of
the Central Plains causing a SFC low pressure system to develop
near the Gulf Coast. The model spreads precipitation into the
Mid-South Thursday Night into early part of the weekend as the
system tracks slowly eastward. Depending on temperatures, some
precipitation could be on the wintry side for Northeast Arkansas,
the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee Thursday 
Night and Friday Night if this solution ends up being correct.
Meanwhile, the GFS remains consistent that the low pressure system 
will develop much further south in the Gulf of Mexico which would 
keep the precipitation south of the Mid-South. The CWA would just 
be cold and dry. For now will continue with small 20/30 POPS until
there is some agreement.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected overnight with increasing mid/high
clouds. An MVFR stratus deck around 2000 ft will overspread the 
area from west to east tomorrow, hanging around through the 
overnight hours. Light rain showers are expected to accompany a 
fast-moving upper-level trough tomorrow, but should have a 
limited impact on operations. Winds will be from the south 
overnight and will increase to 8-10 kts near/after 06z. Gusts over
20 kts are anticipated roughly between 15z-00z.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$