921 
FXUS63 KARX 052349
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 PM CST Sat Jan 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night) 
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Jan 5 2019

Surface high pressure slides over the region tonight providing quiet 
weather across the area. Clouds will gradually be on the increase as 
low pressure approaches from the Rockies during the day on Sunday. 
Southeast winds increase Sunday afternoon as the pressure gradient 
tightens ahead of the approaching low with gusts of 30 to 35 mph 
expected by late afternoon. Dry low level air in place between 900 
through 750 mb will hold precipitation off until after 00Z.

Low pressure continues to track into the Upper Mississippi River 
Valley Sunday night with increasing moisture transport. This will 
lead to a rapid increase in precipitation across the area with 
mainly rain expected south of I-90 in warm air advection and mainly 
snow north of I-94 early on, transitioning to a rain snow/mix or all 
rain by sunrise Monday. Could see 2-4 inches of snow across Clark 
and Taylor counties in north central WI Sunday night before mixing 
with/changing over to rain around sunrise. Could also see some 
spotty icing on any colder road surfaces where temperatures hover 
around freezing. If this trend continues, may need eventual 
headlines for Sunday night...will continue to monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Jan 5 2019

Low pressure pulls off to the east by midday Monday, bringing the 
bulk of rain with it. Otherwise, plan on highs in the upper 30s to 
upper 40s.

Models show another fairly vigorous mid-level trough dropping 
through the Northern Plains into the area late Monday night through 
Tuesday. However, precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, looks 
very light and confined mainly north of I-90.  

Tuesday night through Thursday look quiet as an amplifying ridge of 
high pressure moves through the central CONUS. 

Low pressure moves across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes 
region Thursday night through Friday for a chances of some light 
snow. Another trough moves in Saturday, but looks like any light 
snow will remain north of the area. 

Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday through Saturday are expected to be 
at or a  few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Jan 5 2019

Cigs/WX/vsby: first concern is a band of low stratus sinking 
southward from northern WI - behind a cold front. RAP/NAM low level 
RH fields in good agreement with gradually breaking up these low 
clouds as they approach the TAF sites, and will hold with a VFR 
forecast for now. 

Next concern is approaching upper level shortwave trough for Sunday 
night. High clouds will be on the increase Sun, with a lowering of 
the deck by Sun evening. IFR/MVFR cigs expected (LIFR possible), 
which should hold through Monday morning. RA to RASN expected to 
accompany the system, moving in between 03-06z Mon. There will be 
vsby restrictions, lower when pcpn type more on the snow side.  

Winds: north winds will shift to the east Sunday morning, increasing 
as they do. Some higher gusts also likely during the afternoon. 
Winds will stay fairly strong and gusty through Sun night. 

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp/DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rieck