816 FXUS64 KBMX 050930 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 330 AM CST Sat Jan 5 2019 .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight The sun is set to make an appearance today and will stay through the weekend! All lingering rain activity associated with the surface low has officially moved out of our area. High pressure and upper level ridging has already begun building in from the west. A few clouds may linger early this morning but as high pressure continues to move into our area drier air in the low levels will act to clear skies. High's today will range from the upper 50's north to low 60's south. Overnight low's will range from the upper 30's north to low 40's south. 07 .LONG TERM... Sunday through Friday. Changes in the upper-level configuration have allowed for an improvement in weather conditions in the long-term. Recently, a blocking high pressure/mid-level ridge to our southeast kept persistent southwesterly flow across the area, but has weakened from passing troughs off the East Coast by Sunday. This will allow for upper-level winds to veer northwesterly and surface high pressure to settle across the southeastern CONUS by Sunday afternoon. Thus, overall expecting the dry, more stable period initially moving into the area on Saturday to continue into early next week. As a result, warm and mostly sunny conditions with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s should prevail, with warming into the 70s possible across the south Mon/Tue. This slight warming trend results from the surface anticyclone sliding off to our east on Monday allowing for height rises and low-level southerly flow. An opportunity for light, widely scattered rain showers will pass through in the Monday evening - Tuesday evening timeframe in association with a weak frontal boundary entering from the northwest. The mid/upper-level features responsible for this stay to our north, keeping most dynamical forcing out of our area. With limited moisture return and weak convergence along the front, have decided to keep PoPs mostly in the slight chance category (<25%) for now. Thereafter, an amplifying and chaotic split-flow pattern will continue to evolve across the country with another stable continental airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. This will favor dry & calm conditions into mid/late next week with 40s & 50s for afternoon highs. Some indications that the next Rossby Wave to bring wet weather to the area will enter the picture in the Fri/Sat timeframe. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Large area of stratocumulus behind a departing low will plague the region overnight. Confidence in the ceilings dropping into IFR has dropped since the last issuance, but not enough to completely remove it. Therefore, have MVFR ceilings dominating through 12-15z. Some of the ceilings may drop into IFR at times. Expect more IFR clouds west of the area that may advect/develop west near sunrise. Therefore, have added mention longer into TCL. Otherwise, drier air filters into Central Alabama on Saturday. Ceilings will erode and mostly clear conditions should exist by 15-18z at all terminals. Winds remain westerly around 9kts. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fair & drier weather is expected through the weekend, before the next small chance of light rainfall arrives Monday evening into Tuesday. Given recent rainfall and saturated grounds, no fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 36 62 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 Anniston 59 37 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 58 39 64 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 61 38 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Calera 58 38 63 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Auburn 58 40 66 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 61 39 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 40 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$