844 FXUS64 KJAN 041100 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 500 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Light rain will continue across the region for much of the day depending on how fast the upper low passes. Right now the system is slowly progressing east/northeast with light rain continuing ahead of it and overrunning light rain possible behind it. Still thinking it will be too warm for winter precip today. Guidance pops and temps were good through the short term, so went with them. Winds have increased across the region. Sustained winds from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts can be expected today. Shouldn't be strong enough for a wind advisory but may blow unsecured items around.Looking for gusts to end by late afternoon, but winds to remain around 10-12 mph through the night. Clearing and cooler tonight with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. Mav guidance didn't show much fog, but hi res models supported it. Left patchy fog in everywhere tonight, didn't add any dense wording for now. Saturday and Sunday: A dry weekend with moderating temps is on tap for the NWS JAN forecast area. Mid and upper ridging will build across the eastern CONUS over the weekend, with a surface ridge of high pressure expanding from the Gulf Coast along the East Coast. Increasingly anomalous mid/upper heights will portend above average high temps by Sunday. Monday through early Tuesday: A mid/upper trough will advance from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley early next week bringing a weak front into the region. Models have trended toward a slightly quicker and less amplified wave. Now, it appears isolated to scattered showers could reach the Delta during the daytime Monday. Otherwise, another warm day is on tap just ahead of the front, with 70s possible over the southern half of the area. With a lack of upper level "push", the front will begin to stall/lay out west to east and fall apart as it moves through the area, bringing scattered showers Monday night perhaps continuing into the day Tuesday before dissipating. Late Tuesday through Thursday: A drier airmass will accompany a building surface ridge, with no rain anticipated during the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: Most of the rain was nearly out of the area. Some light rain was developing along the trough axis/boundary as the low lifts out. Ceilings and visibilities may bounce around as fog develops. Skies don't seem to clear before late today or early tomorrow. Winds have become southwesterly and increased at most sites. Will keep gusty southwesterly winds going through the afternoon. continued rain, fog and low clouds will maintain MVFR conditions at most sites into the evening. VFR conditions will in the next forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 47 36 61 38 / 24 3 0 0 Meridian 49 37 61 36 / 19 6 0 0 Vicksburg 48 35 59 38 / 9 1 0 0 Hattiesburg 53 37 63 38 / 8 4 0 0 Natchez 48 36 60 39 / 3 2 0 0 Greenville 47 35 57 39 / 30 3 0 0 Greenwood 45 35 58 39 / 52 6 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$