233 FXUS63 KICT 032338 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 538 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019 As of early this afternoon, a well-defined upper low is currently centered over northeast Texas/southern Oklahoma. Radar imagery and surface observations reveal that ascent is supporting a mix of wintry weather types across Oklahoma, with pockets of freezing rain, light snow, rain, and sleet all mixed in. Some of this precipitation has been creeping slightly into southern Kansas during the day today, with some areas along the Kansas/Oklahoma border experiencing a freezing rain/light snow mix this morning transitioning to mostly a light rain/light wintry mix early afternoon as temperatures have warmed above the freezing mark. As the system continues to progress to the east across Oklahoma, latest short term guidance continues a slight chance of some light precipitation across the southern tier of the forecast area this evening and through much of the night. With cloud cover expected to remain in place, have tweaked hourly temperatures up slightly following CONSHORT guidance in southeast Kansas. The thinking here is that cloud cover should slow the drop in temperatures after sunset, and thus keep temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing in far southeast Kansas for the most part. This will mean that any precipitation that does occur in southeast Kansas this evening/tonight will likely fall as rain, though a brief wintry mix cannot be completely ruled out by very early tomorrow morning. Regardless, little to no accumulation is expected and impacts should remain minimal. By tomorrow morning, the aforementioned system will continue to trek well east of Kansas as mid/upper ridging over the Rockies slides eastward. This ridging will keep the weather quiet and temperatures on an upward trend heading into the weekend, marking a return of highs in the mid 50s to possibly near 60 degrees (roughly 15-20 degrees above normal for January). .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019 The next chance at precipitation will return on Sunday evening into Monday when another trough quickly moves across mid-America. Moisture transport will ramp up across the forecast area beginning overnight Sunday night, especially in southeast Kansas. This could generate some light rain across the area, but models continue to disagree regarding timing of the system. Out of phase ensemble members lend a low confidence on the specifics of the rain chances at this time, but for now the best chances appear to be in southeast Kansas overnight or Monday morning. Depending on how far west precipitation initiates, cooler temperatures in central Kansas early Monday morning could lend themselves to a brief window of light snow or wintry mix, but again confidence in this is low at this time. Beyond Monday afternoon, the forecast will remain quiet with above normal temperatures continuing as ridging settles into place across the Central U.S. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019 VFR forecast at all sites throughout the period, however MVFR conditions and wintry mix will flirt with KCNU this evening. Upper low continues to spin along across the Red River, with about half of the models showing precipitation sloshing a bit north through roughly 0300-0500 UTC. Precipitation should then wane as drier air sloshes back to the south. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 27 55 28 59 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 27 54 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 26 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 27 53 29 59 / 20 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 26 54 27 57 / 20 0 0 0 Russell 26 52 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 26 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 26 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 25 54 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 29 54 28 57 / 30 0 0 0 Chanute 27 53 29 58 / 20 0 0 0 Iola 26 53 29 58 / 20 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 29 53 28 57 / 20 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...PJH