337 FXUS61 KBGM 030916 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 416 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will move through the region tonight and bring light accumulating snow to the north, and a mix of light snow and drizzle or freezing drizzle from the southern tier of NY south. Quiet weather expected Thursday night and Friday before the next low pressure system tracks southeast of the region on Saturday with another shot of freezing rain and then rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 205 AM update... Spotty freezing drizzle will affect portions of our forecast area, mainly east of I-81, through the next few hours. Thereafter, we expect the rain/snow mix will change over to mainly snow due to falling temperatures at the surface and aloft. Lake enhancement off of Ontario will produce 1 to 3 inches of new snow over Northern Oneida County with lighter amounts elsewhere. As the cyclone exits the region, weather will become fair today across NY and PA with a few light snow showers continuing off of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will peak in the middle-30s. Westerly winds will gust at 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon. Quiet weather is expected Thursday night. Temperatures will fall into the middle-20s. Southerly winds ahead of an approaching storm system will push milder air into our region on Friday. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with increasing clouds possible during the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will rise into the lower and middle-40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM Update... A system will take a glancing shot at the area late Friday night into Saturday, which for those that it hits will result in mainly rain but brief freezing rain cannot be ruled out on the front end of it. This will be followed by weak cool air advection including very minor lake effect in Central New York to round out the weekend. Compact upper low is set to migrate from the Tennessee Valley late Friday to exiting offshore of the Delmarva peninsula on Saturday. While the models continue to have somewhat differing schools-of-thought, at least the solutions are converging narrower on the possibilities with the back edge of the system. Long story short is that our region will mark the sharp gradient between a quarter-to-half inch of rain southeast to nothing northwest, and the crux of uncertainty is thus exactly how far northwest to bring the rain. Poconos-Catskills at this point are very likely to have rain reach them, whereas it is very doubtful to reach the northern Finger Lakes to NY Thruway Corridor. However far it gets, Saturday morning will represent the peak of precipitation extent and amounts. Confidence continues to increase that there will be too much warm air aloft to support anything other than liquid being produced, but temperatures at the surface are still touchy enough to lend uncertainty as to whether brief freezing rain will be possible on the front end of the rain shield. This will depend on if the rain can reach all the way to the Twin Tiers to Catskills/Far Northeast corner of PA, and in time early Saturday morning, before temperatures continue to climb above freezing. As is often the case, higher elevations of these areas will be more prone to any freezing rain potential. We will continue to monitor trends while also including mention of freezing rain possibility in our local Hazardous Weather Outlook. Upper low and its deeper moisture will shove offshore Saturday afternoon, quickly allowing rain chances to drop for our region as a transition to westerly flow occurs into Saturday night. Highs Saturday will be upper 30s-lower 40s, followed by low of upper 20s-lower 30s Saturday night. Cool air advection will not be that significant, so highs Sunday will still manage mid 30s- lower 40s. 850mb temperatures appear to dip into 5-10 degrees below zero Celsius in Central New York; only enough to produce a minor lake response and thus small chances for scattered lake effect snow showers mixed with rain and of nominal amounts. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 415 AM Update... Forecast adjusted to account for latest multi-model blend and trends. Confidence continues to increase for Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday to feature precipitation, yet types are still very much up in the air. As with prior runs, GFS is more progressive with its wave. The Canadian Global is more like the GFS, in fact even more progressive, and the ECMWF if anything has at least trended slightly in that direction yet remains the most amplified and slowest evolving of the solutions. All models however depict similar ideas of warm air advection on the front end, allowing opportunity for snow to become mix or rain into at least southern and western portions of our area if not more. The models also all revert to some cold air advection behind the system Tuesday night into Wednesday, with potential for wrap- around and/or lake effect snow showers. Previous discussion... Sunday night through Wednesday: A brief quiet period is expected Sunday night before a clipper system approaches from the west for Monday into Tuesday. At this time, model guidance suggests that this clipper will track over the Great Lakes. With limited cold air in place, this would mean snow showers or a rain/snow mix Monday changing to mostly rain showers for most by Tuesday. Areas further north and east should remain either as all snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday, as the colder air may stay in place there. Should this system track further south, more colder air would be in place, allowing for more of the precipitation to be in the form of snow across a wider area. The bulk of the precipitation will fall Monday night into Tuesday and therefore went with likely POPs for most during this period. Uncertainty remains regarding precipitation types and amounts. Then latest model guidance shows this weaker low transferring its energy and forming a new low off the coast late Tuesday. Most moisture associated with this will be along the coast and away from our area. Some lingering wrap-around snow showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as this low quickly pulls away offshore. Highs and lows will vary depending on location during this period. Highs Monday will range from the mid to upper 20s in our far northern areas to the upper 30s across NEPA. Tuesday's highs will range from lower 30s north and east to near 40 further south and west. Lower to mid 30s for Wednesday. Coldest night will be Sunday night with temperatures in the teens to mid 20s. Monday and Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 1230 AM update... A band of snow and rain showers will move up the lake plain and into Northern NY overnight. Most of this activity will remain north of our terminals, but showers on the periphery will affect the airports through early morning. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR through mid-morning, with isolated pockets of IFR ceilings likely at KBGM and KAVP. Ceilings will lift into VFR territory by late-morning on Thursday. Westerly winds will gust near 20 knots through the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night and Saturday...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. Saturday night and Sunday...Mostly VFR, but possibly MVFR at SYR/RME in lake effect snow showers. Sunday night and Monday...mainly VFR. possible restrictions late Monday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJG/MDP/TAC AVIATION...DJP